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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
The estimated burden of HIV/AIDS in Uganda, 2005-2010
AIDS, Volume 22, No. 4, Year 2008
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Description
OBJECTIVES: To estimate the burden of HIV disease in Uganda and the effect of HIV/AIDS control programmes to mitigate it. DESIGN: Mathematical modelling and projecting using surveillance and census data. METHODS: Using antenatal clinic surveillance (1986-2002) and a recent population-based survey (2004-2005) data, we modelled the adult national HIV prevalence over time (1981-2004), and kept prevalence constant at 6.4% for the years 2004-2010. Using Spectrum software and census data, we estimated the national burden of HIV disease and the effect of selected HIV-related prevention and treatment programmes. RESULTS: In 2005, we estimated that there were 135 300 new HIV infections (adult HIV incidence 0.96%), 691 900 asymptomatic prevalent infections, 88 100 AIDS cases, and 76 400 AIDS deaths. An estimated 647 000 (80%) HIV-infected adults were unaware of their infection; one third of all adult deaths were HIV related. As a result of population growth, by 2008 a similar number of people will be HIV infected (1.1 million) as during the peak of the epidemic in 1994. Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage is expected to rise from 67 000 (2005) to 160 000 (2010), the number of persons needing but not receiving ART will decrease only slightly from 127 600 (2005) to 111 100 (2010). The use of single-dose in 2005 nevirapine probably averted only 4% of the estimated 20 400 vertical infections. CONCLUSION: HIV/AIDS continues to be a leading cause of adult disease and death in Uganda. Universal ART access is probably unachievable. With the absolute burden of HIV disease approaching the historic peak in the early 1990s, more effective prevention programmes are of paramount importance. © 2008 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.
Authors & Co-Authors
Hladik, Wolfgang
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Uganda, Kampala
Cdc
Musinguzi, Joshua B.
Uganda, Kampala
Uganda Ministry of Health
Kirungi, Wilford L.
Uganda, Kampala
Uganda Ministry of Health
Opio, Alex A.
Uganda, Kampala
Uganda Ministry of Health
Stover, John
United States, Glastonbury
Avenir Health
Kaharuza, Frank M.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Bunnell, Rebecca E.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Kafuko, Jessica
Uganda, Kampala
U.s. Agency for International Development
Mermin, Jonathan H.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Statistics
Citations: 48
Authors: 9
Affiliations: 5
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1097/QAD.0b013e3282f470be
Research Areas
Health System And Policy
Infectious Diseases
Maternal And Child Health
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Cohort Study
Study Approach
Quantitative
Study Locations
Uganda