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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
Preexposure prophylaxis will have a limited impact on HIV-1 drug resistance in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparison of mathematical models
AIDS, Volume 27, No. 18, Year 2013
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Description
Background: Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine can prevent new HIV-1 infections, but there is a concern that use of PrEP could increase HIV drug resistance resulting in loss of treatment options. We compared standardized outcomes from three independent mathematical models simulating the impact of PrEP on HIV transmission and drug resistance in sub-Saharan African countries. Methods: All models assume that people using PrEP receive an HIV test every 3-6 months. The models vary in structure and parameter choices for PrEP coverage, effectiveness of PrEP (at different adherence levels) and the rate with which HIV drug resistance emerges and is transmitted. Results: Themodels predict that the use of PrEP in conjunction with antiretroviral therapy will result in a lower prevalence of HIVthanwhen only antiretroviral therapy is used.With or without PrEP, all models suggest that HIV drug resistance will increase over the next 20 years due to antiretroviral therapy. PrEP will increase the absolute prevalence of drug resistance in the total population by less than 0.5%andamongst infected individuals by at most 7%. Twenty years after the introduction of PrEP, the majority of drug-resistant infections is due to antiretroviral therapy (50-63% across models), whereas 40-50% will be due to transmission of drug resistance, and less than 4% to the use of PrEP. Conclusion: HIV drug resistance resulting from antiretroviral therapy is predicted to far exceed that resulting from PrEP. Concern over drug resistance should not be a reason to limit the use of PrEP. © 2013 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
Authors & Co-Authors
Van De Vijver, D. A.M.C.
Netherlands, Rotterdam
Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam
Nichols, Brooke E.
Netherlands, Rotterdam
Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam
Boucher, Charles A.B.
Netherlands, Rotterdam
Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam
Cambiano, Valentina
United Kingdom, London
University College London
Eaton, Jeffrey William
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
Glaubius, Robert L.
United States, Cleveland
Cleveland Clinic Foundation
Lythgoe, Katrina A.
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
Mellors, John W.
United States, Pittsburgh
University of Pittsburgh
Phillips, Andrew N.
United Kingdom, London
University College London
Sigaloff, Kim Catherina Eve
Netherlands, Amsterdam
Pharmaccess Foundation
Hallett, Timothy B.
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
Statistics
Citations: 72
Authors: 11
Affiliations: 6
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1097/01.aids.0000433237.63560.20
ISSN:
14735571
Research Areas
Health System And Policy
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study