Skip to content
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Menu
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Menu
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
Modelling the public health impact of male circumcision for HIV prevention in high prevalence areas in Africa
BMC Infectious Diseases, Volume 7, Article 16, Year 2007
Notification
URL copied to clipboard!
Description
Background: Recent clinical trials in Africa, in combination with several observational epidemiological studies, have provided evidence that male circumcision can reduce HIV female-to-male transmission risk by 60% or more. However, the public health impact of large-scale male circumcision programs for HIV prevention is unclear. Methods: Two mathematical models were examined to explore this issue: a random mixing model and a compartmental model that distinguishes risk groups associated with sex work. In the compartmental model, two scenarios were developed, one calculating HIV transmission and prevalence in a context similar to the country of Botswana, and one similar to Nyanza Province, in western Kenya. Results: In both models, male circumcision programs resulted in large and sustained declines in HIV prevalence over time among both men and women. Men benefited somewhat more than women, but prevalence among women was also reduced substantially. With 80% male circumcision uptake, the reductions in prevalence ranged from 45% to 67% in the two "countries", and with 50% uptake, from 25% to 41%. It would take over a decade for the intervention to reach its full effect. Conclusion: Large-scale uptake of male circumcision services in African countries with high HIV prevalence, and where male circumcision is not now routinely practised, could lead to substantial reductions in HIV transmission and prevalence over time among both men and women. © 2007 Nagelkerke et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Available Materials
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC1832203/bin/1471-2334-7-16-S1.doc
Authors & Co-Authors
Nagelkerke, Nico J.D.
United Arab Emirates, Al Ain
United Arab Emirates University
Canada, Winnipeg
University of Manitoba
Moses, Stephen
Canada, Winnipeg
University of Manitoba
de Vlas, Sake Jan
Netherlands, Rotterdam
Erasmus Mc
Bailey, Robert C.
United States, Chicago
University of Illinois at Chicago
Statistics
Citations: 145
Authors: 4
Affiliations: 4
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1186/1471-2334-7-16
e-ISSN:
14712334
Research Areas
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Randomised Control Trial
Cross Sectional Study
Study Locations
Botswana
Kenya
Participants Gender
Male
Female