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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
Global diversity in light of climate change: The case of ants
Diversity and Distributions, Volume 17, No. 4, Year 2011
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Description
Aim To use a fine-grained global model of ant diversity to identify the limits of our knowledge of diversity in the context of climate change. Location Global. Methods We applied generalized linear modelling to a global database of local ant assemblages to predict the species density of ants globally. Predictors evaluated included simple climate variables, combined temperature×precipitation variables, biogeographic region, elevation, and interactions between select variables. Areas of the planet identified as beyond the reliable prediction ability of the model were those having climatic conditions more extreme than what was represented in the ant database. Results Temperature was the most important single predictor of ant species density, and a mix of climatic variables, biogeographic region and interactions between climate and region yielded the best overall model. Broadly, geographic patterns of ant diversity match those of other taxa, with high species density in the wet tropics and in some, but not all, parts of the dry tropics. Uncertainty in model predictions appears to derive from the low amount of standardized sampling of ants in Asia, in Africa and in the most extreme (e.g. hottest) climates. Model residuals increase as a function of temperature. This suggests that our understanding of the drivers of ant diversity at high temperatures is incomplete, especially in hot and arid climates. In other words, our ignorance of how ant diversity relates to environment is greatest in those regions where most species occur - hot climates, both wet and dry. Mainconclusions Our results have two important implications. First, temperature is necessary, but not sufficient, to explain fully the patterns of ant diversity. Second, our ability to predict ant diversity is weakest exactly where we need to know the most, the warmest regions of a warming world. This includes significant parts of the tropics and some of the most biologically diverse areas in the world. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Authors & Co-Authors
Jenkins, Clinton N.
United States, College Park
University of Maryland, College Park
Sanders, Nathan J.
United States, Knoxville
The University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Denmark, Copenhagen
Københavns Universitet
Andersen, Alan N.
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Arnan, Xavier
Spain, Cerdanyola Del Valles
Centre de Recerca Ecològica I Aplicacions Forestals Creaf-cerca
Brühl, Carsten Albrecht
Germany, Koblenz am Rhein
Universität Koblenz-landau
Cerdâ, Xím
Spain, Madrid
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
Ellison, Aaron M.
United States, Cambridge
Harvard University
Fisher, Brian L.
United States, San Francisco
California Academy of Sciences
Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.
United States, Cambridge
University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
Gotelli, Nicholas J.
United States, Burlington
The University of Vermont
Gove, Aaron David
Australia, Perth
Curtin University
Guénard, Benoit S.
United States, Raleigh
Nc State University
Lattke, John E.
Venezuela, Caracas
Universidad Central de Venezuela
Lessard, Jean Philippe
United States, Knoxville
The University of Tennessee, Knoxville
McGlynn, Terrence P.
United States, Carson
California State University, Dominguez Hills
Menke, Sean B.
United States, Lake Forest
Lake Forest College
Parr, Catherine L.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Philpott, Stacy M.
United States, Toledo
The University of Toledo
Vasconcelos, Heraldo L.
Brazil, Uberlandia
Universidade Federal de Uberlândia
Weiser, Michael D.
United States, Raleigh
Nc State University
Dunn, Robert R.
United States, Raleigh
Nc State University
Statistics
Citations: 108
Authors: 21
Affiliations: 19
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00770.x
ISSN:
14724642
Research Areas
Environmental