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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
South African child deaths 1990-2011: Have HIV services reversed the trend enough to meet Millennium Development Goal 4?
AIDS, Volume 27, No. 16, Year 2013
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Description
OBJECTIVE: To analyse trends in under-five mortality rate in South Africa (1990-2011), particularly the contribution of AIDS deaths. METHODS: Three nationally used models for estimating AIDS deaths in children were systematically reviewed. The model outputs were compared with under-five mortality rate estimates for South Africa from two global estimation models. All estimates were compared with available empirical data. RESULTS: Differences between the models resulted in varying point estimates for under-five mortality but the trends were similar, with mortality increasing to a peak around 2005. The three models showing the contribution of AIDS suggest a maximum of 37-39% of child deaths were due to AIDS in 2004-2005 which has since declined. Although the rate of progress from 1990 is not the 4.4% needed to meet Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival, South AfricaÊs average annual rate of under-five mortality decline between 2006 and 2011 was between 6.3 and 10.2%. CONCLUSION: In 2005, South Africa was one of only four countries globally with an under-five mortality rate higher than the 1990 Millennium Development Goal baseline. Over the past 5 years, the country has achieved a rate of child mortality reduction exceeded by only three other countries. This rapid turnaround is likely due to scale-up of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and to a lesser degree, the expanded roll-out of antiretroviral therapy. Emphasis on these programmes must continue, but failure to address other aspects of care including integrated high-quality maternal and neonatal care means that the decline in child mortality could stall. © 2013 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
Available Materials
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC3815090/bin/aids-27-2637-s001.doc
Authors & Co-Authors
Kerber, Kate J.
Unknown Affiliation
Lawn, Joy E.
Unknown Affiliation
Johnson, Leigh Francis
Unknown Affiliation
Mahy, Mary I.
Unknown Affiliation
Dorrington, Rob Edwin
Unknown Affiliation
Phillips, Heston
Unknown Affiliation
Bradshaw, Debbie Young
Unknown Affiliation
Nannan, Nadine N.
Unknown Affiliation
Msemburi, William T.
Unknown Affiliation
Oestergaard, Mikkel Z.
Unknown Affiliation
Walker, Neff P.
Unknown Affiliation
Sanders, David M.
Unknown Affiliation
Jackson, Debra J.
Unknown Affiliation
Statistics
Citations: 59
Authors: 13
Affiliations: 10
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1097/01.aids.0000432987.53271.40
e-ISSN:
14735571
Research Areas
Infectious Diseases
Maternal And Child Health
Study Locations
South Africa