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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
environmental science
Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe
Nature Climate Change, Volume 5, No. 8, Year 2015
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Description
Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is an invasive alien species in Europe producing pollen that causes severe allergic disease in susceptible individuals. Ragweed plants could further invade European land with climate and land-use changes. However, airborne pollen evolution depends not only on plant invasion, but also on pollen production, release and atmospheric dispersion changes. To predict the effect of climate and land-use changes on airborne pollen concentrations, we used two comprehensive modelling frameworks accounting for all these factors under high-end and moderate climate and land-use change scenarios. We estimate that by 2050 airborne ragweed pollen concentrations will be about 4 times higher than they are now, with a range of uncertainty from 2 to 12 largely depending on the seed dispersal rate assumptions. About a third of the airborne pollen increase is due to on-going seed dispersal, irrespective of climate change. The remaining two-thirds are related to climate and land-use changes that will extend ragweed habitat suitability in northern and eastern Europe and increase pollen production in established ragweed areas owing to increasing CO 2. Therefore, climate change and ragweed seed dispersal in current and future suitable areas will increase airborne pollen concentrations, which may consequently heighten the incidence and prevalence of ragweed allergy. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited.
Authors & Co-Authors
Vautard, Robert
France, Guyancourt
Institut Pierre-simon Laplace
Solmon, Fabien
Italy, Trieste
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
Viovy, Nicolas
France, Guyancourt
Institut Pierre-simon Laplace
Khvorostyanov, Dmitry V.
France, Palaiseau
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique
Essl, Franz
Austria, Vienna
Universität Wien
Chuine, Isabelle
France, Montpellier
Centre D’ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive
Colette, Augustin
France, Verneuil-en-halatte
Ineris Institut National de L'environnement Industriel et Des Risques
Semenov, Mikhail A.
United Kingdom, Harpenden
Rothamsted Research
Storkey, Jonathan
United Kingdom, Harpenden
Rothamsted Research
Statistics
Citations: 127
Authors: 9
Affiliations: 8
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1038/nclimate2652
ISSN:
1758678X
Research Areas
Environmental
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Cohort Study