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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
agricultural and biological sciences
Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges
Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, Volume 9, No. 3-4, Year 2008
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Description
Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species' range shifts, changes in phenology and species' extinctions, accurate projections of species' responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species' distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the "trailing edge" of shifting populations, species' interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species' distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species' migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species' distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. © 2007 Rübel Foundation, ETH Zürich.
Authors & Co-Authors
Thuiller, Wilfried
France, Grenoble
Laboratoire D’écologie Alpine Leca
Albert, Cécile Hélène
France, Grenoble
Laboratoire D’écologie Alpine Leca
Araújo, Miguel B.
Spain, Madrid
Csic - Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales Mncn
Berry, Pam M.
United Kingdom, Oxford
Oxford Social Sciences Division
Cabeza, Mar
Finland, Helsinki
Helsingin Yliopisto
Guisan, Antoine A.
Switzerland, Lausanne
Université de Lausanne Unil
Hickler, Thomas
Sweden, Lund
Institutionen För Naturgeografi Och Ekosystemvetenskap, Lunds Universitet
Midgley, Guy F.
South Africa, Pretoria
South African National Biodiversity Institute
Paterson, James S.
United Kingdom, Oxford
Oxford Social Sciences Division
Schurr, Frank M.
Germany, Potsdam
Universität Potsdam
Sykes, Martin T.
Sweden, Lund
Institutionen För Naturgeografi Och Ekosystemvetenskap, Lunds Universitet
Zimmermann, Niklaus E.
Switzerland, Birmensdorf
Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt Für Wald, Schnee Und Landschaft Wsl
Statistics
Citations: 12
Authors: 12
Affiliations: 9
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/j.ppees.2007.09.004
ISSN:
14338319
e-ISSN:
16180437
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study