Dispersal and niche evolution jointly shape the geographic turnover of phylogenetic clades across continents

The turnover of phylogenetic clades across space is a fundamental biodiversity pattern that may depend on long-term evolutionary processes, and that has downstream effects on other aspects of diversity including species richness and community structure. Limited niche evolution and limited dispersal are two major processes causing spatial restriction, and thus turnover, of clades. We studied the determinants of clade turnover within the World's richest floristic kingdom, the Neotropics, using the palm family (Arecaceae) as a model. We show that continental-scale clade turnover is driven by a combination of limited niche evolution-with respect to temperature and soil tolerances-and limited dispersal. These findings are consistent with strong dispersal barriers within the Neotropics, and the observation that some palm lineages are most diverse in certain biomes or climates. The importance of such deep-time effects suggest that palms might be slow to adapt or disperse in response to anthropogenic climate change.