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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
agricultural and biological sciences
Genealogy with seasonality, the basic reproduction number, and the influenza pandemic
Journal of Mathematical Biology, Volume 62, No. 5, Year 2011
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Description
The basic reproduction number R0 has been used in population biology, especially in epidemiology, for several decades. But a suitable definition in the case of models with periodic coefficients was given only in recent years. The definition involves the spectral radius of an integral operator. As in the study of structured epidemic models in a constant environment, there is a need to emphasize the biological meaning of this spectral radius. In this paper we show that R0 for periodic models is still an asymptotic per generation growth rate. We also emphasize the difference between this theoretical R0 for periodic models and the "reproduction number" obtained by fitting an exponential to the beginning of an epidemic curve. This difference has been overlooked in recent studies of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.
Authors & Co-Authors
Bacaër, Nicolas
France, Bondy
Unité de Modélisation Mathématique et Informatique Des Systèmes Complexes
Ait Dads, El Hadi
Morocco, Marakech
Université Cadi Ayyad
Statistics
Citations: 87
Authors: 2
Affiliations: 2
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1007/s00285-010-0354-8
ISSN:
03036812
e-ISSN:
14321416
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Phenomenological Study