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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
environmental science
Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?
Global Change Biology, Volume 12, No. 6, Year 2006
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Description
We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes. © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Authors & Co-Authors
Broennimann, Olivier
Switzerland, Lausanne
Université de Lausanne Unil
Thuiller, Wilfried
France, Grenoble
Laboratoire D’écologie Alpine Leca
South Africa, Pretoria
South African National Biodiversity Institute
Hughes, Greg O.
South Africa, Pretoria
South African National Biodiversity Institute
United Kingdom, Helsby
Rsk Adas Ltd.
Midgley, Guy F.
South Africa, Pretoria
South African National Biodiversity Institute
Alkemade, Rob
United Kingdom, Helsby
Rsk Adas Ltd.
Guisan, Antoine A.
Switzerland, Lausanne
Université de Lausanne Unil
Statistics
Citations: 283
Authors: 6
Affiliations: 4
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01157.x
ISSN:
13541013
e-ISSN:
13652486
Research Areas
Environmental