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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Volume 13, No. 4, Article e0007322, Year 2019
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Description
Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment of Ae. aegypti into mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km2 under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador. © 2019 Lippi et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Available Materials
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC6488096/bin/pntd.0007322.s001.docx
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC6488096/bin/pntd.0007322.s002.docx
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC6488096/bin/pntd.0007322.s003.tif
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC6488096/bin/pntd.0007322.s004.tif
Authors & Co-Authors
Lippi, Catherine A.
United States, Gainesville
University of Florida
Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.
United States, Syracuse
Suny Upstate Medical University
Blackburn, Jason Kenna
United States, Gainesville
University of Florida
Ryan, Sadie J.
Unknown Affiliation
Statistics
Citations: 25
Authors: 4
Affiliations: 3
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322
ISSN:
19352727
Research Areas
Environmental
Genetics And Genomics
Health System And Policy