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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
Modelling the impact of vaccination and sexual behaviour adaptations on mpox cases in the USA during the 2022 outbreak
Sexually Transmitted Infections, Article sextrans-2023-055922, Year 2023
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Description
Background: The 2022 mpox outbreak has infected over 30 000 people in the USA, with cases declining since mid-August. Infections were commonly associated with sexual contact between men. Interventions to mitigate the outbreak included vaccination and a reduction in sexual partnerships. Understanding the contributions of these interventions to decreasing cases can inform future public health efforts. Methods: We fit a dynamic network transmission model to mpox cases reported by Washington DC through 10 January 2023. This model incorporated both vaccine administration data and reported reductions in sexual partner acquisition by gay, bisexual or other men who have sex with men (MSM). The model output consisted of daily cases over time with or without vaccination and/or behavioural adaptation. Results: We found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptations. One year into the outbreak, vaccination and behavioural adaptation together prevented an estimated 84% (IQR 67% to 91%) of cases. Vaccination alone averted 79% (IQR 64% to 88%) of cases and behavioural adaptation alone averted 25% (IQR 10% to 42%) of cases. We further found that in the absence of vaccination, behavioural adaptation would have reduced the number of cases, but would have prolonged the outbreak. Conclusions: We found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptation, but vaccination averted more cases overall and was key to hastening outbreak conclusion. Overall, this indicates that outreach to encourage individuals to protect themselves from infection was vital in the early stages of the mpox outbreak, but that combination with a robust vaccination programme hastened outbreak conclusion. © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.
Authors & Co-Authors
Asher, Jason M.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Delaney, Kevin P.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Payne, Daniel C.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Mermin, Jonathan H.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Still, William L.
Unknown Affiliation
Statistics
Citations: 1
Authors: 5
Affiliations: 1
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1136/sextrans-2023-055922
ISSN:
13684973
Research Areas
Sexual And Reproductive Health
Participants Gender
Male