Burden, clinical outcomes and predictors of time to in hospital mortality among adult patients admitted to stroke unit of Jimma university medical center: A prospective cohort study

Background: The global burden of stroke epidemiology is changing rapidly. Over the 1990-2013 periods, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of deaths and incident events of stroke. The burden of stroke varies in Ethiopia between regions and over time. Hence, this study was aimed to assess the burden, clinical outcomes and predictors of time to in hospital mortality among stroke patients. Methods: A prospective cohort study was carried at stroke unit of Jimma University Medical Center (JUMC) from March 10-July 10, 2017. The outcome of interest was mortality and time to death. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 20. Multivariable Cox regression was used to identify the predictors of in hospital mortality and time to death from hospital arrival. Predictor variable with P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: A total of 116 eligible stroke patients were followed over 4 months. The mean age of patients was 55.1 + 14.0 years and males comprised of 73 (62.9%). Stroke accounted for 16.5% of total medical admissions. Among the 116 patients with stroke, 91 (78.4%) were discharged alive making in hospital mortality rate of 25 (21.6%). The median time of in hospital mortality and length of hospital stay after admission of the patients were 4.38 days and 9.21 days, respectively. The prominent suspected immediate cause for in hospital mortality was increased intracranial pressure in 17 (68.0%) followed by respiratory failure secondary to aspiration pneumonia in 11 (44.0%) patients. Brain edema (AHR: 6.27, 95% CI: 2.50-15.76), urine incontinence (AHR: 3.48, 95% CI: 1.48-8.17), National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) > 13 during hospital arrival (AHR: 22.58, 95% CI: 2.95-172.56) and diagnosis of stroke clinically alone (AHR: 4.96, 95% CI: 1.96-12.54) were the independent predictors of time to in hospital mortality. Conclusions: The mortality rate of stroke in this setup was comparable with other low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). There is an urgent need to establish well equipped and staffed stroke units in the country in addition to strengthening the already existing one's. Furthermore, future work must be designed to identify the barriers to improve stroke outcomes and recovery.