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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
Frailty’s influence on 30-day mortality in old critically ill ICU patients: a bayesian analysis evaluating the clinical frailty scale
Annals of Intensive Care, Volume 13, No. 1, Article 126, Year 2023
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Description
Introduction: Frailty is widely acknowledged as influencing health outcomes among critically ill old patients. Yet, the traditional understanding of its impact has predominantly been through frequentist statistics. We endeavored to explore this association using Bayesian statistics aiming to provide a more nuanced understanding of this multifaceted relationship. Methods: Our analysis incorporated a cohort of 10,363 older (median age 82 years) patients from three international prospective studies, with 30-day all-cause mortality as the primary outcome. We defined frailty as Clinical Frailty Scale ≥ 5. A hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression model was employed, adjusting for covariables, using a range of priors. An international steering committee of registry members reached a consensus on a minimal clinically important difference (MCID). Results: In our study, the 30-day mortality was 43%, with rates of 38% in non-frail and 51% in frail groups. Post-adjustment, the median odds ratio (OR) for frailty was 1.60 (95% CI 1.45–1.76). Frailty was invariably linked to adverse outcomes (OR > 1) with 100% probability and had a 90% chance of exceeding the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) (OR > 1.5). For the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) as a continuous variable, the median OR was 1.19 (1.16–1.22), with over 99% probability of the effect being more significant than 1.5 times the MCID. Frailty remained outside the region of practical equivalence (ROPE) in all analyses, underscoring its clinical importance regardless of how it is measured. Conclusions: This research demonstrates the significant impact of frailty on short-term mortality in critically ill elderly patients, particularly when the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is used as a continuous measure. This approach, which views frailty as a spectrum, enables more effective, personalized care for this vulnerable group. Significantly, frailty was consistently outside the region of practical equivalence (ROPE) in our analysis, highlighting its clinical importance. © 2023, The Author(s).
Authors & Co-Authors
Wernly, Bernhard
Austria, Salzburg
Paracelsus Medizinische Privatuniversitat
Bruno, Raphael Romano
Germany, Dusseldorf
Heinrich-heine-universität Düsseldorf
Beil, Michael F.
Israel, Jerusalem
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Flaatten, Hans Kristian
Norway, Bergen
Universitetet I Bergen
Kelm, Malte K.M.
Germany, Dusseldorf
Heinrich-heine-universität Düsseldorf
Sviri, Sigal
Israel, Jerusalem
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Szczeklik, Wojciech
Poland, Krakow
Jagiellonian University Medical College
Elhadi, Muhammed K.
Libya, Tripoli
University of Tripoli
Joannidis, Michael
Austria, Innsbruck
Medizinische Universitat Innsbruck
Oeyen, Sandra G.
Belgium, Ghent
Universitair Ziekenhuis Gent
Marsh, Brian J.
Ireland, Dublin
Mater Misericordiae University Hospital
Moreno, Rui Paulo
Portugal, Lisbon
Nova Medical School - Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Portugal, Covilha
Universidade da Beira Interior
Wernly, Sarah
Austria, Salzburg
Paracelsus Medizinische Privatuniversitat
Leaver, Susannah K.
United Kingdom, London
St George's University Hospitals Nhs Foundation Trust
De Lange, Dylan W.
Netherlands, Utrecht
Universiteit Utrecht
Guidet, Bertrand R.
France, Paris
Sorbonne Université
Jung, Christian
Germany, Dusseldorf
Heinrich-heine-universität Düsseldorf
Libya, Tripoli
University of Tripoli
Statistics
Authors: 17
Affiliations: 14
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1186/s13613-023-01223-9
ISSN:
21105820
Study Design
Cohort Study
Case-Control Study