Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops

Global production of annual crops will be affected by the increases in mean temperatures of 2-4°C expected towards the end of the 21st century. Within temperate regions, current cultivars of determinate annual crops will mature earlier, and hence yields will decline in response to warmer temperatures. Nevertheless, this negative effect of warmer temperatures should be countered by the increased rate of crop growth at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, at least when there is sufficient water. Of more importance for the yield of annual seed crops may be changes in the frequency of hot (or cold) temperatures which are associated with warmer mean climates. The objectives of this paper are to review evidence for the importance of variability in temperature for annual crop yields, and to consider how the impacts of these events may be predicted. Evidence is presented for the importance of variability in temperature, independent of any substantial changes in mean seasonal temperature, for the yield of annual crops. Seed yields are particularly sensitive to brief episodes of hot temperatures if these coincide with critical stages of crop development. Hot temperatures at the time of flowering can reduce the potential number of seeds or grains that subsequently contribute to the crop yield. Three research needs are identified in order to provide a framework for predicting the impact of episodes of hot temperatures on the yields of annual crops: reliable seasonal weather forecasts, robust predictions of crop development, and crop simulation models which are able to quantify the effects of brief episodes of hot temperatures on seed yield. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.