Skip to content
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Menu
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Menu
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
Estimated future HIV prevalence, incidence, and potential infections averted in the United States: A multiple scenario analysis
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, Volume 55, No. 2, Year 2010
Notification
URL copied to clipboard!
Description
Objectives: To estimate the potential future burden of HIV in the United States under different intervention scenarios. Methods: We modeled future HIV incidence, prevalence, and infections averted using 2006 estimates of HIV incidence (55,400 new infections per year), prevalence (1,107,000 persons living with HIV), and transmission rate (5.0 per 100 persons living with HIV). We modeled 10-year trends for 3 base-case scenarios (steady incidence, steady transmission rate, declining transmission rate based on the 2000-2006 trend) and 2 intensified HIV intervention scenarios (50% reduction in transmission rate within 10 and 5 years). Results: Base-case scenarios predicted HIV prevalence increases of 24%-38% in 10 years. Reducing the transmission rate by 50% within 10 years reduces incidence by 40%; prevalence increases 20% to an estimated 1,329,000 persons living with HIV. Halving the transmission rate within 5 years reduces incidence by 46%; prevalence increases 13%, to 1,247,000. Although in year 10 incidence is similar regardless of the intervention time frame, more infections are averted when halving the transmission rate within 5 years. Conclusions: HIV prevalence will likely increase creating additional demands for health care services. These analyses are instructive for setting HIV prevention goals for the nation and assessing potential cost savings of intensified HIV prevention efforts. © 2010 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
Authors & Co-Authors
Green, Timothy A.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Holtgrave, David Robert
United States, Baltimore
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Rhodes, Philip H.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Fenton, Kevin A.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Mermin, Jonathan H.
United States, Atlanta
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Statistics
Citations: 37
Authors: 5
Affiliations: 2
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1097/QAI.0b013e3181e8f90c
ISSN:
15254135
Research Areas
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Randomised Control Trial
Cross Sectional Study
Cohort Study