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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
agricultural and biological sciences
Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe
Diversity and Distributions, Volume 12, No. 1, Year 2006
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Description
Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity. Atlantic areas provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance of the group. Our results illustrate the fact that both species-specific predictions and functional patterns should be examined separately in order to assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and gain insights into future ecosystem functioning. © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Authors & Co-Authors
Thuiller, Wilfried
France, Paris
Cnrs Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
South Africa, Pretoria
South African National Biodiversity Institute
Portugal, Evora
University of Évora
France, Grenoble
Laboratoire D’écologie Alpine Leca
Lavorel, Sandra
France, Paris
Cnrs Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
France, Grenoble
Laboratoire D’écologie Alpine Leca
Sykes, Martin T.
Sweden, Lund
Institutionen För Naturgeografi Och Ekosystemvetenskap, Lunds Universitet
Araújo, Miguel B.
France, Paris
Cnrs Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Portugal, Evora
University of Évora
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Spain, Madrid
Csic - Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales Mncn
Statistics
Citations: 280
Authors: 4
Affiliations: 7
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1111/j.1366-9516.2006.00216.x
ISSN:
13669516
e-ISSN:
14724642
Research Areas
Environmental