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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? the case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt
BMC Medical Research Methodology, Volume 14, No. 1, Article 39, Year 2014
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Description
Background: Data on HCV-related cirrhosis progression are scarce in developing countries in general, and in Egypt in particular. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of death and transition between different health stages of HCV (compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma) for an Egyptian population of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. Methods. We used the "elicitation of expert opinions" method to obtain collective knowledge from a panel of 23 Egyptian experts (among whom 17 were hepatologists or gastroenterologists and 2 were infectiologists). The questionnaire was based on virtual medical cases and asked the experts to assess probability of death or probability of various cirrhosis complications. The design was a Delphi study: we attempted to obtain a consensus between experts via a series of questionnaires interspersed with group response feedback. Results: We found substantial disparity between experts' answers, and no consensus was reached at the end of the process. Moreover, we obtained high death probability and high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. The annual transition probability to death was estimated at between 10.1% and 61.5% and the annual probability of occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma was estimated at between 16.8% and 58.9% (depending on age, gender, time spent in cirrhosis and cirrhosis severity). Conclusions: Our results show that eliciting expert opinions is not suited for determining the natural history of diseases due to practitioners' difficulties in evaluating quantities. Cognitive bias occurring during this type of study might explain our results. © 2014 Cousien et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Available Materials
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC4003824/bin/1471-2288-14-39-S1.pdf
https://efashare.b-cdn.net/share/pmc/articles/PMC4003824/bin/1471-2288-14-39-S2.pdf
Authors & Co-Authors
Cousien, Anthony
France, Paris
Infection, Anti-microbien, Modélisation, Évolution
France, Lille
Université de Lille
France, Paris
Université Paris Cité
Obach, Dorothée
France, Paris
Infection, Anti-microbien, Modélisation, Évolution
France, Lille
Université de Lille
France, Paris
Université Paris Cité
Deuffic-Burban, Sylvie
France, Paris
Infection, Anti-microbien, Modélisation, Évolution
France, Lille
Institute for Translational Research in Inflammation Infinite
France, Paris
Université Paris Cité
Mostafa, Aya
Egypt, Cairo
Faculty of Medicine - Ain Shams University
Esmat, Gamal
Egypt, Cairo
Faculty of Medicine
Canva, Valérie
France, Lille
Chu Lille
El-Kassas, Mohamed
Egypt, Cairo
National Hepatology and Tropical Medicine Research Institute
El-Sayed, Mohammad M.
Egypt, Cairo
Faculty of Medicine
Anwar, Wagida A.
Egypt, Cairo
Faculty of Medicine - Ain Shams University
Fontanet, A. L.
France, Paris
Conservatoire National Des Arts et Metiers
France, Paris
Institut Pasteur, Paris
Mohamed, Mostafa K.
Egypt, Cairo
Faculty of Medicine - Ain Shams University
Yazdanpanah, Yazdan
France, Paris
Infection, Anti-microbien, Modélisation, Évolution
France, Paris
Hôpital Bichat-claude-bernard Ap-hp
France, Paris
Université Paris Cité
Statistics
Citations: 12
Authors: 12
Affiliations: 11
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1186/1471-2288-14-39
e-ISSN:
14712288
Research Areas
Cancer
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Study Locations
Egypt