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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study
British Journal of Surgery, Volume 108, No. 9, Year 2021
Notification
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Description
Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population. © The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of BJS Society Ltd.
Authors & Co-Authors
Nepogodiev, Dmitri
United Kingdom, Birmingham
University of Birmingham
Simoes, Joana F.F.
Unknown Affiliation
Li, Elizabeth
Unknown Affiliation
Glasbey, James C.
Unknown Affiliation
Picciochi, Maria
Unknown Affiliation
Kamarajah, Sivesh K.
Unknown Affiliation
Gujjuri, Rohan R.
Unknown Affiliation
Bhangu, Aneel Amir
United Kingdom, Birmingham
University of Birmingham
Azab, M. A.
Unknown Affiliation
Ababneh, Hazim S.
Unknown Affiliation
Abbas, Ahmed M.
Unknown Affiliation
Abbott, Tom Ef
Unknown Affiliation
Elsayed, Mostafa Abd
Unknown Affiliation
Abd-Elkariem, Ahmed Yassien
Unknown Affiliation
Abd-Elsalam, Sherief M.
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmed, Shimaa Abdalla
Unknown Affiliation
Abdeewi, Saedah
Unknown Affiliation
Abdel-Aleem, M. A.
Unknown Affiliation
Abdelsalam, Wafaa Mohamed
Unknown Affiliation
Abdel-Hafez, Ibrahim Hisham
Unknown Affiliation
Abdelaal, Abdelrahman
Unknown Affiliation
Abdelazeem, Khaled
Unknown Affiliation
Abdelaziz, Mohamed Ali
Unknown Affiliation
Abdeldayem, Hesham M.
Unknown Affiliation
Abdelfattah, Mahmoud M.
Unknown Affiliation
Abdelhafez, Mohamed
Unknown Affiliation
Abdelkabir, Mohammed
Unknown Affiliation
Salama, Ibrahim Abdelkader
Unknown Affiliation
Abdelkhalek, Mohamed
Unknown Affiliation
Abdelmalik, Abubaker
Unknown Affiliation
AbdelMawla, Ahmed Aly
Unknown Affiliation
Abdelrahman, Abdelrahman M.
Unknown Affiliation
Moawad, Karim Abdelraouf
Unknown Affiliation
Abdelwahab, Omar Ahmed
Unknown Affiliation
Azize, Diallo Abdoul
Unknown Affiliation
Abdoun, Meriem
Unknown Affiliation
Salam, Omar Abdul
Unknown Affiliation
Abdul-Mumin, Alhassan
Unknown Affiliation
Abdulateef, Omar
Unknown Affiliation
Abdulfattah, Ammar Yasser
Unknown Affiliation
Abdulkareem, Amal Abdullah
Unknown Affiliation
Abdull, Mohammed Mahdi
Unknown Affiliation
Abdullaev, Abakar Elbrusovich
Unknown Affiliation
Abdullahi, Alhassan Sharrif
Unknown Affiliation
Abdullahi, Habiba Ibrahim
Unknown Affiliation
Abdullahi, Lawal Barau L.B.
Unknown Affiliation
Abdullahi, Yasir Y.
Unknown Affiliation
Abdulmalik, Abdulmuez
Unknown Affiliation
Abdulrahman, Mamuda Alhaji
Unknown Affiliation
Abdulsalam, Khalifa Ibrahim
Unknown Affiliation
Abdulsalam, Moruf Adekunle
Unknown Affiliation
Abdulwahab, Taiceer
Unknown Affiliation
Abdulwahed, Eman
Unknown Affiliation
Abdur-Rahman, Lukman Olajide
Unknown Affiliation
Abdurrazzaaq, Abdussemiu I.
Unknown Affiliation
Abdus-Salam, Rukiyat Adeola
Unknown Affiliation
Abdussalam, Hameedat Opeyemi
Unknown Affiliation
Abebe, Engida
Unknown Affiliation
Abebe, Kirubel
Unknown Affiliation
Abebe, Metasebia Worku
Unknown Affiliation
Abebe, Nebyou Seyoum
Unknown Affiliation
Abebrese, John Tabiri
Unknown Affiliation
Abedalqader, Lina
Unknown Affiliation
Abiola, Olajide Olusegun
Unknown Affiliation
Abiola, Paul O.
Unknown Affiliation
Aboalsamh, Ghaleb
Unknown Affiliation
Abosamak, Nour Eldin
Unknown Affiliation
Abou-Abbass, Hussein
Unknown Affiliation
Abou-Khalil, Jad E.
Unknown Affiliation
Abouelazayem, Mohamed
Unknown Affiliation
Abouelnagah, Galal M.
Unknown Affiliation
Abouzid, Amr
Unknown Affiliation
Abozied, Hesham
Unknown Affiliation
Hilal, Mohammed Abu
Unknown Affiliation
Abu-Ismail, Luai
Unknown Affiliation
Abu-Zaid, Ahmed
Unknown Affiliation
Abubeih, Hossam M.A.
Unknown Affiliation
Abudher, Abdulhafid
Unknown Affiliation
Abukhalaf, Sadi A.
Unknown Affiliation
Aburahmah, Mohammad
Unknown Affiliation
Abusabeib, Abdelrahman
Unknown Affiliation
Abutaka, Ahmad
Unknown Affiliation
Abuzaina, Khalil N.M.
Unknown Affiliation
Achimaş-Cadariu, Patriciu Andrei
Unknown Affiliation
Acquaye, Jane
Unknown Affiliation
Adamina, Michel
Unknown Affiliation
Adams, Katherine
Unknown Affiliation
Addas, Bassam M.J.
Unknown Affiliation
Adebanjo, Ademola Tolulope O.
Unknown Affiliation
Adebara, Idowu O.
Unknown Affiliation
Adebayo, Olaolu O.
Unknown Affiliation
Adebayo, Sikiru Adekola
Unknown Affiliation
Adegbola, Samuel O.
Unknown Affiliation
Adeleye, Amos O.
Unknown Affiliation
Adem, Ephrem G.
Unknown Affiliation
Ademola, Samuel Adesina
Unknown Affiliation
Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O.
Unknown Affiliation
Adeniran, Abimbola
Unknown Affiliation
Adeniran, Abiodun S.
Unknown Affiliation
Adeniyi, Adebayo Augustine
Unknown Affiliation
Aderounmu, Adewale Abdulwasiu
Unknown Affiliation
Adesanya, Opeoluwa A.
Unknown Affiliation
Adeyemo, Olabisi Timothy
Unknown Affiliation
Adeyeye, Ademola A.
Unknown Affiliation
Adisa, Adewale O.
Unknown Affiliation
Aditianingsih, Dita
Unknown Affiliation
Adjeso, Theophilus T.K.
Unknown Affiliation
Admasu, Azarias Kassahun
Unknown Affiliation
Adu-Aryee, Nii Armah
Unknown Affiliation
Adze, Joel Amwe
Unknown Affiliation
Afifi, Eman
Unknown Affiliation
Afolabi, Abdulrahman Olushola
Unknown Affiliation
Afolabi, Bosede Bukola
Unknown Affiliation
Afuwape, Oludolapo Olawumi
Unknown Affiliation
Agarwal, Arnav
Unknown Affiliation
Agarwal, Gaurav K.
Unknown Affiliation
Agbedinu, Kwabena
Unknown Affiliation
Agbeko, Anita Eseenam
Unknown Affiliation
Agbeno, Evans Kofi
Unknown Affiliation
Agboadoh, Nelson
Unknown Affiliation
Agbonrofo, Peter I.
Unknown Affiliation
Aghadi, Ifeanyi Kene
Unknown Affiliation
Agida, Eyaofun T.
Unknown Affiliation
Agnes, Salvatore
Unknown Affiliation
Agrawal, Amit
Unknown Affiliation
Aguado, H. J.
Unknown Affiliation
Agyemang-Prempeh, Akosua A.
Unknown Affiliation
Aherne, Thomas Michael
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmad, Afaf
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmad, Misbahu Haruna
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmad, Mohammad Shakil
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmad, Qamar Ashfaq
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmad, Tareq
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmed, Abdullah
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmed, Ahmed Rashid
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmed, Aminat Olayinka
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmed, Islam A.
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmed, Khalid E.
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmed, Manhal S.
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmed, Mohamed Karkeet Hayam
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmed, Mohammed S.
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmed, Omar S.
Unknown Affiliation
Ahmed, Waheed Ul Rahman
Unknown Affiliation
Aigner, Felix
Unknown Affiliation
Aiolfi, Alberto
Unknown Affiliation
Aisuodionoe-Shadrach, Oseremen Inohkoife
Unknown Affiliation
Benhamou, Rita Ait
Unknown Affiliation
Ajai, Olalekan Temitope
Unknown Affiliation
Ajao, Akinlabi Emmanuel
Unknown Affiliation
Ajekwu, Samuel Chibuzo
Unknown Affiliation
Aji, Narjiss
Unknown Affiliation
Aji, Sani Ali
Unknown Affiliation
Ajibola, Hafees O.
Unknown Affiliation
Ajlan, Abdulrazag M.
Unknown Affiliation
Akaba, Godwin Otuodichinma
Unknown Affiliation
Akani, Christian
Unknown Affiliation
Akgör, Utku
Unknown Affiliation
Akhavizadegan, Hamed
Unknown Affiliation
Akhbari, Melika
Unknown Affiliation
Akililu, Yemisirach Bizuneh
Unknown Affiliation
Akin, Emrah
Unknown Affiliation
Akinajo, Opeyemi Rebecca
Unknown Affiliation
Akinmade, Akinola
Unknown Affiliation
Tirsit, Abenezer
Unknown Affiliation
Aktimur, Yunus Emre
Unknown Affiliation
Amri, Abdulrahman Al
Unknown Affiliation
Hosni, Mohammed Al
Unknown Affiliation
Mutani, Mohammed Al
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Absi, Emad J.
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Badawi, Ismail A.
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Balas, Hasan Ibrahim
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Dolat, Wedad
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Embideen, Somya N.
Unknown Affiliation
al-Habib, Amro F.
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Manaseer, Balqees Mahmoud
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Mandeel, Hazem Mahmoud
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Masari, Hayder
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Masri, Mahmoud M.
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Mouakeh, Ahmad
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Mujaini, Abdullah S.
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Naggar, Hamza M.
Unknown Affiliation
al-Najjar, Dania
Unknown Affiliation
al-Najjar, Hani
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Nawas, Bilal
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Radi, Osman Osama
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Shaiji, Tariq Faisal
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Shaikh, Ghadeer Khaled
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Shazly, Mohammed Hamdy
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Shehari, Mohammed Mohammed
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Shudifat, Abdel Ellah M.
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Slaibi, Ibrahim
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Tarakji, Mohannad
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Terki, Abdullatif Ebrahim
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Yahri, Omer
Unknown Affiliation
Al-Yaseen, Mustafa W.
Unknown Affiliation
Alabi, Ibrahim Abolaji
Unknown Affiliation
Aladelusi, Timothy Olukunle
Unknown Affiliation
Alaglan, Abeer A.
Unknown Affiliation
Alahmadi, Ibrahim
Unknown Affiliation
Alahmari, Ahmed A.
Unknown Affiliation
Alakaloko, Felix Makinde
Unknown Affiliation
Alalawi, Yousef S.
Unknown Affiliation
Alameen, Hind
Unknown Affiliation
AlAmeer, Ehab S.
Unknown Affiliation
Alamri, Ahmed Hameed
Unknown Affiliation
Alarcón del Água, Isaías Áas
Unknown Affiliation
Alasia, Datonye Dennis
Unknown Affiliation
Alassiri, Ali H.
Unknown Affiliation
Alatar, Abdullah A.
Unknown Affiliation
Alateeq, Mohammed Fahad
Unknown Affiliation
Alatise, Olusegun Isaac
Unknown Affiliation
Alawami, Mohammed A.
Unknown Affiliation
Alawi, Ahmed
Unknown Affiliation
Alawi, Khalil
Unknown Affiliation
Alawneh, Fade M.
Unknown Affiliation
Alayande, Barnabas Tobi
Unknown Affiliation
Alayed, Nada Mohammed
Unknown Affiliation
Alazab, Emad
Unknown Affiliation
AlBadawi, Ismail A.
Unknown Affiliation
Albakry, Ibrahim
Unknown Affiliation
Albanese, Erminia
Unknown Affiliation
Albargawi, Ali
Unknown Affiliation
Alberici, Laura
Unknown Affiliation
Aldakkan, Abdulrahman S.
Unknown Affiliation
Alderazi, Amer
Unknown Affiliation
Aldhaam, Naif A.
Unknown Affiliation
Aldrighetti, Luca Antonio M.
Unknown Affiliation
Aldulaijan, Fozan Abdulqader
Unknown Affiliation
Alegbeleye, Justina Omoikhefe
Unknown Affiliation
Alemu, Berhanu Nega
Unknown Affiliation
Alexander, Philip Vareed
Unknown Affiliation
Alexandrou, Andreas P.
Unknown Affiliation
Alfayez, Fatema N.
Unknown Affiliation
Alferdaus, Abdallah
Unknown Affiliation
Alfieri, A.
Unknown Affiliation
Älgå, Andreas
Unknown Affiliation
Algarni, Mohammed Abdullah
Unknown Affiliation
Alhabdan, Sultan
Unknown Affiliation
Alhadi, Abdulmueti
Unknown Affiliation
Alhajji, Zahrah H.
Unknown Affiliation
Alhamid, Ahmad
Unknown Affiliation
AlHarthi, Bandar N.
Unknown Affiliation
Alharthi, Sultan Abdullah
Unknown Affiliation
Alhazmi, Alaa Aziz
Unknown Affiliation
Alhazmi, Barrag
Unknown Affiliation
Alherabi, Ameen Z.
Unknown Affiliation
Alhossaini, Rana M.
Unknown Affiliation
Alhunaidi, Omar
Unknown Affiliation
Ali, Almigdad H.M.
Unknown Affiliation
Ali, Ghazanfar
Unknown Affiliation
Ali, Ibrahim Rabea
Unknown Affiliation
Ali, Imran
Unknown Affiliation
Ali, Wagdi M.
Unknown Affiliation
Mohamed, Mohamed Ali
Unknown Affiliation
Aliş, Halil
Unknown Affiliation
Aliyu, Mohammed Salele
Unknown Affiliation
Aljabali, Alaa A.A.
Unknown Affiliation
Aljafari, Abdulmalek
Unknown Affiliation
Aljafari, Abdulmoiz
Unknown Affiliation
Aljaiuossi, Anas
Unknown Affiliation
Statistics
Citations: 76
Authors: 260
Affiliations: 1
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1093/bjs/znab101
ISSN:
00071323
Research Areas
Cancer
Covid
Health System And Policy
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Cohort Study
Study Approach
Quantitative