Predictive markers for the early prognosis of dengue severity: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Predictive markers represent a solution for the proactive management of severe dengue. Despite the low mortality rate resulting from severe cases, dengue requires constant exami-nation and round-the-clock nursing care due to the unpredictable progression of complica-tions, posing a burden on clinical triage and material resources. Accordingly, identifying markers that allow for predicting disease prognosis from the initial diagnosis is needed. Given the improved pathogenesis understanding, myriad candidates have been proposed to be associated with severe dengue progression. Thus, we aim to review the relationship between the available biomarkers and severe dengue. Methodology We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the differences in host data collected within 72 hours of fever onset amongst the different disease severity levels. We searched nine bibliographic databases without restrictive criteria of language and publi-cation date. We assessed risk of bias and graded robustness of evidence using NHLBI quality assessments and GRADE, respectively. This study protocol is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42018104495). Principal findings Of 4000 records found, 40 studies for qualitative synthesis, 19 for meta-analysis. We identi-fied 108 host and viral markers collected within 72 hours of fever onset from 6160 labora-tory-confirmed dengue cases, including hematopoietic parameters, biochemical substances, clinical symptoms, immune mediators, viral particles, and host genes. Overall, inconsistent case classifications explained substantial heterogeneity, and meta-analyses lacked statistical power. Still, moderate-certainty evidence indicated significantly lower platelet counts (SMD-0.65, 95% CI-0.97 to-0.32) and higher AST levels (SMD 0.87, 95% CI 0.36 to 1.38) in severe cases when compared to non-severe dengue during this time window. Conclusion The findings suggest that alterations of platelet count and AST level—in the first 72 hours of fever onset—are independent markers predicting the development of severe dengue.