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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
earth and planetary sciences
An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger
International Journal of Climatology, Volume 32, No. 5, Year 2012
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Description
This work assesses the value of climate forecasts for millet growers in Niger. We quantify the potential value of three kinds of categorical forecasts assigning cumulated rainfall during the forthcoming rainy season by tercile (dry, normal, or humid): (i) a realistic imperfect tercile forecast; (ii) a perfect tercile forecast; and (iii) a perfect tercile forecast which includes a prediction of rainy season onset and offset dates. Eighteen management strategies are assessed. Corresponding yields are computed using the SARRA-H crop model then converted into utility by taking into account risk-aversion. Simulations over an historical 18-year period 1990-2007 show that benefit is lowest with imperfect tercile forecasts (+6.9%), higher (+11%) with perfect tercile forecasts, and reaches + 31% when enhanced adaptation strategies and additional climatic indices are available. These results show that improving existing forecast systems by including the prediction of onset and cessation of rainfall is of great value. © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society.
Authors & Co-Authors
Roudier, Philippe
France, Nogent-sur-marne
Centre International de Recherche Sur L'environnement et le Développement
Sultan, Benjamin
France, Paris
Laboratoire D'océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques
Quirion, Philippe
France, Nogent-sur-marne
Centre International de Recherche Sur L'environnement et le Développement
Baron, Christian
France, Paris
Cirad
Alhassane, Agali
Niger
Aghrymet Regional Center
Traoré, Seydou B.
Niger
Aghrymet Regional Center
Muller, Bertrand
France, Nogent-sur-marne
Centre International de Recherche Sur L'environnement et le Développement
Statistics
Citations: 46
Authors: 7
Affiliations: 4
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1002/joc.2308
ISSN:
08998418
e-ISSN:
10970088
Research Areas
Environmental
Study Locations
Niger