Here be dragons: A phylogenetic and biogeographical study of the Smaug warreni species complex (Squamata: Cordylidae) in southern Africa

Taxonomy of the Smaug warreni species complex remains contentious despite known morphological differences and geographical separation of the various taxa. This study uses an 11-gene dataset to recover phylogenetic relationships between the seven nominal members of the S.warreni complex. Eight well-supported clades were returned, with S.warreni barbertonensis found to be paraphyletic. A time-calibrated analysis of molecular data indicates that all eight clades in the S.warreni complex separated in the late Miocene, much earlier than the date suggested by the existing hypothesis of vicariance through the ingression of Kalahari sands. Ecological niche modelling indicates that although all clades are allopatric, a slight decrease in temperature could potentially render them sympatric, supporting an hypothesis of range expansion through climatic change.