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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
immunology and microbiology
Towards realistic estimates of HCV incidence in Egypt
Journal of Viral Hepatitis, Volume 20, No. 4, Year 2013
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Description
Accurate incidence estimates are essential for quantifying hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic dynamics and monitoring the effectiveness of public health programmes, as well as for predicting future burden of disease and planning patient care. In Egypt, the country with the largest HCV epidemic worldwide, two modelling studies have estimated age-specific incidence rates that, applied to the age pyramid, would correspond to more than 500 000 Egyptians getting infected annually. This is in contrast to figures of the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population that estimates new infections to be approximately 100 000 per year. We performed new analyses of nationwide data to examine the modelling assumptions that led to these estimates. Thus, we found that the key assumption of these models of a stationary epidemic is invalid. We propose an alternate approach to estimating incidence based on analysing cohort data; we find that the number of annual new infections is <150 000. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Authors & Co-Authors
Breban, R.
France, Paris
Institut Pasteur, Paris
Doss, Wahid H.
Egypt, Cairo
National Hepatology and Tropical Medicine Research Institute
Esmat, Gamal
Egypt, Giza
Cairo University
El-Sayed, Manal Hamdy
Egypt, Cairo
Ain Shams University Children's Hospital
Hellard, Margaret Elena
Australia, Melbourne
Burnet Institute
Australia, Clayton
Monash University
Australia, Melbourne
University of Melbourne
Ayscue, Patrick
United States, Ithaca
Cornell University
Albert, Matthew L.
France, Paris
Institut Pasteur, Paris
France, Paris
Inserm
Fontanet, A. L.
France, Paris
Institut Pasteur, Paris
France, Paris
Conservatoire National Des Arts et Metiers
Mohamed, Mostafa K.
Egypt, Cairo
Faculty of Medicine - Ain Shams University
Statistics
Citations: 71
Authors: 9
Affiliations: 11
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1111/j.1365-2893.2012.01650.x
ISSN:
13520504
e-ISSN:
13652893
Research Areas
Health System And Policy
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Cohort Study
Study Locations
Egypt