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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
immunology and microbiology
Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: Collaborative analysis of prospective studies
AIDS, Volume 21, No. 9, Year 2007
Notification
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Description
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. DESIGN: A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and north America on 20 379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. METHODS: Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. RESULTS: During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/μl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone. CONCLUSION: On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort- collaboration.org. © 2007 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.
Authors & Co-Authors
May, Margaret T.
United Kingdom, Bristol
University of Bristol
Sterne, Jonathan A.C.
Unknown Affiliation
Sabin, Caroline Anne
Unknown Affiliation
Costagliola, Dominique G.
Unknown Affiliation
Justice, Amy C.
Unknown Affiliation
Thíébaut, Rodolphe
Unknown Affiliation
Gill, M. John
Unknown Affiliation
Phillips, Andrew N.
Unknown Affiliation
Reiss, Peter
Unknown Affiliation
Hogg, Robert S.
Unknown Affiliation
Ledergerber, Bruno
Unknown Affiliation
Monforte, Antonella D’Arminio
Unknown Affiliation
Staszewski, Schlomo
Unknown Affiliation
Egger, Matthias
Unknown Affiliation
Statistics
Citations: 313
Authors: 14
Affiliations: 1
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1097/QAD.0b013e328133f285
ISSN:
02699370
Research Areas
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Cohort Study