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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
agricultural and biological sciences
Network theory and SARS: Predicting outbreak diversity
Journal of Theoretical Biology, Volume 232, No. 1, Year 2005
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Description
Many infectious diseases spread through populations via the networks formed by physical contacts among individuals. The patterns of these contacts tend to be highly heterogeneous. Traditional "compartmental" modeling in epidemiology, however, assumes that population groups are fully mixed, that is, every individual has an equal chance of spreading the disease to every other. Applications of compartmental models to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) resulted in estimates of the fundamental quantity called the basic reproductive number R0 - the number of new cases of SARS resulting from a single initial case - above one, implying that, without public health intervention, most outbreaks should spark large-scale epidemics. Here we compare these predictions to the early epidemiology of SARS. We apply the methods of contact network epidemiology to illustrate that for a single value of R0, any two outbreaks, even in the same setting, may have very different epidemiological outcomes. We offer quantitative insight into the heterogeneity of SARS outbreaks worldwide, and illustrate the utility of this approach for assessing public health strategies. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Authors & Co-Authors
Meyers, Lauren Ancel
United States, Austin
The University of Texas at Austin
United States, Santa fe
Santa fe Institute
Skowronski, Danuta M.
Canada, Vancouver
The University of British Columbia
Brunham, Robert C.
Canada, Vancouver
The University of British Columbia
Statistics
Citations: 517
Authors: 3
Affiliations: 4
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.07.026
ISSN:
00225193
Research Areas
Genetics And Genomics
Sexual And Reproductive Health
Study Design
Randomised Control Trial
Cross Sectional Study
Study Approach
Quantitative