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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
environmental science
Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity
Nature Climate Change, Volume 6, No. 1, Year 2016
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Description
Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited.
Authors & Co-Authors
Garcia Molinos, Jorge
United Kingdom, Oban
The Scottish Association for Marine Science
Japan, Tsukuba
National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan
Halpern, Benjamin S.
United States, Santa Barbara
University of California, Santa Barbara
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
United States, Santa Barbara
National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis
Schoeman, David S.
Australia, Sippy Downs
University of the Sunshine Coast
Brown, Christopher J.
Australia, Brisbane
The University of Queensland
Kiessling, Wolfgang
Germany, Erlangen
Friedrich-alexander-universität Erlangen-nürnberg
Germany, Berlin
Museum Für Naturkunde
Moore, Pippa J.
United Kingdom, Aberystwyth
Aberystwyth University
Australia, Perth
Edith Cowan University
Pandolfi, John M.
Australia, Brisbane
The University of Queensland
Poloczanska, Elvira S.
Australia, Brisbane
The University of Queensland
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Richardson, Anthony J.
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Australia, Brisbane
The University of Queensland
Burrows, Michael T.
United Kingdom, Oban
The Scottish Association for Marine Science
Statistics
Citations: 392
Authors: 10
Affiliations: 12
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1038/nclimate2769
ISSN:
1758678X
Research Areas
Environmental
Study Locations
Multi-countries