Risk factors for incident diabetes in a cohort taking first-line nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy

Efavirenz is the preferred nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) in first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens in low-and middle-income countries, where the prevalence of diabetes is increasing. Randomized control trials have shown mild increases in plasma glucose in participants in the efavirenz arms, but no association has been reported with overt diabetes. We explored the association between efavirenz exposure and incident diabetes in a large Southern African cohort commencing NNRTI-based first-line ART. Our cohort included HIV-infected adults starting NNRTI-based ART in a private sector HIV disease management program from January 2002 to December 2011. Incident diabetes was identified by the initiation of diabetes treatment. Patients with prevalent diabetes were excluded. We included 56,298 patients with 113,297 patient-years of follow-up (PYFU) on first-line ART. The crude incidence of diabetes was 13.24 per 1000 PYFU. Treatment with efavirenz rather than nevirapine was associated with increased risk of developing diabetes (hazard ratio 1.27 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.46)) in a multivariate analysis adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, baseline CD4 count, viral load, NRTI backbone, and exposure to other diabetogenic medicines. Zidovudine and stavudine exposure were also associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes. We found that treatment with efavirenz, as well as stavudine and zidovudine, increased the risk of incident diabetes. Interventions to detect and prevent diabetes should be implemented in ART programs, and use of antiretrovirals with lower risk of metabolic complications should be encouraged.