Mapping the Indian crested porcupine across Iraq: the benefits of species distribution modelling when species data are scarce

Species distribution modelling (SDM) is a key technique used to explore the spatial distribution and habitat suitability of a population, species, or community. SDM is particularly advantageous when species data are scarce, and extrapolation into un-surveyed, potentially inaccessible areas is necessary. Iraq is one such place, where due to the ongoing conflict and political situation, species data are limited and there is neglect of, or even sometimes active destruction of biodiversity and ecological knowledge. The Indian crested porcupine Hystrix indica is a widely distributed mammal that, despite its overall global conservation status of Least Concern, is thought to be heavily threatened by overharvesting in the Middle East, including Iraq. Nevertheless, the lack of data and research in this geographical area limits the conservation of this potentially declining species. We use occurrence records collected from previous literature and expert observations in the field to fit distribution models and map the current distribution of the Indian crested porcupine, with the aim of addressing the knowledge gap about this species in Iraq. We also examine the extrapolation potential of the models across Iraq using multivariate environmental similarity surfaces (MESS). The Indian crested porcupine distribution is strongly influenced by soil type and slope, with the most suitable areas towards the north-east of Iraq, as well as a small vegetated area in the south-east, and along the banks of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. MESS maps suggest that the extrapolation ability of the SDMs appears high, with high similarity and few novel environments across Iraq, providing extra confidence in our distribution predictions. This study provides the most current overview and new baseline of the current Indian crested porcupine distribution across Iraq. Our study highlights the benefits of using SDM to address ecological research questions in areas such as Iraq where species data and knowledge are sparse.