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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
environmental science
Methods for developing multiscale participatory scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe
Ecology and Society, Volume 12, No. 1, Article 8, Year 2007
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Description
Scenario planning is increasingly recognized as a useful tool for exploring change in social-ecological systems on decadal to centennial time horizons. In environmental decision making, scenario development tends to include participatory methods for engaging stakeholders and is conducted at multiple scales. This paper presents insights from participatory scenario development in two separate multiscale environmental assessments. We find that, to engage stakeholders at multiple scales, it is important that the issues explored at each scale be relevant and credible to stakeholders at that scale. An important trade-off exists between maintaining relevance to stakeholders at different scales and maintaining consistency across scales to allow for comparison of scenarios. Where downscaling methods are used to ensure consistency, there can be important consequences for (1) the diversity of scenario outcomes, (2) temporal mismatches in the storylines at different scales, and (3) power relationships among stakeholders at different scales. We suggest that development of participatory scenarios at multiple scales has a strong potential to contribute to environmental decision making, but it requires a substantial investment of time and resources to realize its full potential. Copyright © 2007 by the author(s).
Authors & Co-Authors
Kok, K.
Netherlands, Wageningen
Wageningen University & Research
Biggs, R. (Oonsie)
United States
Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Csir
United States, Madison
University of Wisconsin-madison
Zurek, Monika B.
Unknown Affiliation
Statistics
Citations: 149
Authors: 3
Affiliations: 3
Identifiers
Doi:
10.5751/ES-01971-120108
ISSN:
17083087