A simple clinical and paraclinical score predictive of CD4 cell counts below 400/mm³ in HIV-infected adults in Dakar University Hospital, Senegal

In industrialized countries the decision to start co-trimoxazole (CMX) prophylaxis of HIV-related opportunistic infections is based on the CD4+ cell count. The value of CMX prophylaxis has also been demonstrated in Africa, where CD4+ cell counts are rarely available. We therefore developed a simple score predictive of a threshold CD4+ cell count (400/mm3) below which CMX prophylaxis is indicated. In a retrospective cross-sectional study, we collected clinical and biological data on 211 HIV-infected patients recruited from January 1996 through January 1998 at Fann University Hospital in Dakar, Senegal. Several variables were identified as being predictive of a CD4+ cell count below 400/mm3 by stepwise logistic regression. Each variable was weighted according to its regression coefficient, as follows: male sex (+1), weight loss (+2), body mass index <22 (+2), herpes zoster (+4), tuberculin induration <5 mm (+3) and haemoglobin ≤10 g/dL (+1). A score of ≥4 (sum of weights) selected patients with CD4+ cell counts below 400/mm3 with a sensitivity of 98% and a negative predictive value of 83%. Such a score should be applicable in the African context and should facilitate the management of HIV-infected patients, especially the prescription of CMX prophylaxis.