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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
business, management and accounting
Tourism market potential analysis in Botswana: A Delphi study
Journal of Travel Research, Volume 45, No. 2, Year 2006
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Description
This article explores what would be the most probable scenario for the tourism industry in Botswana by the year 2020. A modified Delphi technique was used to generate data from 68 industry experts. The findings show that experts forecast progressively more changes and higher impact as one moves from values, structures, and events. The implication for policy makers and industry operators is that efforts aimed at increasing tourism may prove more fruitful if focused on changing structures and hosting events, rather than changing the values of the people. The study also improves on the understanding of Delphi forecasting behavior. It demonstrates that an expert who is optimistic on one factor - say, values - is likely to perceive the same with regard to other factors such as structure and events. © 2006 Sage Publications.
Authors & Co-Authors
Kaynak, Erdener
United States, Middletown
Penn State Harrisburg
Marandu, Edward E.
Botswana, Gaborone
University of Botswana
Statistics
Citations: 68
Authors: 2
Affiliations: 2
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1177/0047287506291595
ISSN:
00472875
e-ISSN:
15526763
Research Areas
Health System And Policy
Study Locations
Botswana