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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
biochemistry, genetics and molecular biology
Estimation of global insulin use for type 2 diabetes, 2018–30: a microsimulation analysis
The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, Volume 7, No. 1, Year 2019
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Description
Background: The amount of insulin needed to effectively treat type 2 diabetes worldwide is unknown. It also remains unclear how alternative treatment algorithms would affect insulin use and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by insulin use, given that current access to insulin (availability and affordability) in many areas is low. The aim of this study was to compare alternative projections for and consequences of insulin use worldwide under varying treatment algorithms and degrees of insulin access. Methods: We developed a microsimulation of type 2 diabetes burden from 2018 to 2030 across 221 countries using data from the International Diabetes Federation for prevalence projections and from 14 cohort studies representing more than 60% of the global type 2 diabetes population for HbA 1c , treatment, and bodyweight data. We estimated the number of people with type 2 diabetes expected to use insulin, international units (IU) required, and DALYs averted per year under alternative treatment algorithms targeting HbA 1c from 6·5% to 8%, lower microvascular risk, or higher HbA 1c for those aged 75 years and older. Findings: The number of people with type 2 diabetes worldwide was estimated to increase from 405·6 million (95% CI 315·3 million–533·7 million) in 2018 to 510·8 million (395·9 million–674·3 million) in 2030. On this basis, insulin use is estimated to increase from 516·1 million 1000 IU vials (95% CI 409·0 million–658·6 million) per year in 2018 to 633·7 million (500·5 million–806·7 million) per year in 2030. Without improved insulin access, 7·4% (95% CI 5·8–9·4) of people with type 2 diabetes in 2030 would use insulin, increasing to 15·5% (12·0–20·3) if insulin were widely accessible and prescribed to achieve an HbA 1c of 7% (53 mmol/mol) or lower. If HbA 1c of 7% or lower was universally achieved, insulin would avert 331 101 DALYs per year by 2030 (95% CI 256 601–437 053). DALYs averted would increase by 14·9% with access to newer oral antihyperglycaemic drugs. DALYs averted would increase by 44·2% if an HbA 1c of 8% (64 mmol/mol) were used as a target among people aged 75 years and older because of reduced hypoglycaemia. Interpretation: The insulin required to treat type 2 diabetes is expected to increase by more than 20% from 2018 to 2030. More DALYs might be averted if HbA 1c targets are higher for older adults. Funding: The Leona M and Harry B Helmsley Charitable Trust. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
Authors & Co-Authors
Basu, Sanjay
United States, Palo Alto
Stanford University
United States, Boston
Harvard Medical School
Yudkin, John S.
United Kingdom, London
University College London
Kehlenbrink, Sylvia
United States, Boston
Brigham and Women's Hospital
Davies, Justine Ina
United Kingdom, Birmingham
University of Birmingham
Wild, Sarah Helen
United Kingdom, Edinburgh
The University of Edinburgh
Sussman, Jeremy B.
United States, Ann Arbor
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
United States, Ann Arbor
Va Ann Arbor Healthcare System
Beran, David Henry
Switzerland, Geneva
Université de Genève
Statistics
Citations: 126
Authors: 7
Affiliations: 10
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/S2213-8587(18)30303-6
ISSN:
22138587
Research Areas
Disability
Health System And Policy
Noncommunicable Diseases
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Cohort Study