Skip to content
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Menu
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Menu
Home
About Us
Resources
Profiles Metrics
Authors Directory
Institutions Directory
Top Authors
Top Institutions
Top Sponsors
AI Digest
Contact Us
Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
agricultural and biological sciences
A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Volume 214-215, Year 2015
Notification
URL copied to clipboard!
Description
Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenarios of temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Such datasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and to interpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulate ensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models is that they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2 concentration levels, and can thus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without re-running the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulated by 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to these datasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature. Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effect of a temperature increase of +2°C in the considered sites. Compared to wheat, required levels of [CO2] increase are much higher for maize, and intermediate for rice. For all crops, uncertainties in simulating climate change impacts increase more with temperature than with elevated [CO2]. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.
Authors & Co-Authors
Makowski, David
France, Versailles
Centre de Recherche Île-de-france - Versailles-grignon
Asseng, Senthold
United States, Gainesville
University of Florida
Ewert, Frank A.
Germany, Bonn
Universität Bonn
Durand, Jean Louis
France, Lusignan
Centre Inrae Nouvelle-aquitaine Poitiers
Li, Tao
Philippines, Makati
International Rice Research Institute
Martre, Pierre
France, Saint-genes-champanelle
Centre Clermont-auvergne-rhône-alpes
France, Clermont-ferrand
Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie Des Céréales Gdec
Adam, Myriam
France, Paris
Cirad
Aggarwal, Pramod Kumar
India, New Delhi
International Water Management Institute
Angulo, Carlos
Germany, Bonn
Universität Bonn
Baron, Christian
France, Montpellier
Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale
Basso, Bruno B.
United States, East Lansing
Michigan State University
Bertuzzi, Patrick
France, Avignon
Centre de Recherche Inrae Provence-alpes-côte D’azur
Biernath, Christian
Germany, Oberschleissheim
Helmholtz Center Munich German Research Center for Environmental Health
Boogaard, Hendrik L.
Netherlands, Wageningen
Wageningen University & Research
Boote, Kenneth J.
United States, Gainesville
University of Florida
Bouman, Bas Antonius Maria
Philippines, Makati
International Rice Research Institute
Bregaglio, Simone Ugo Maria
Italy, Milan
Università Degli Studi Di Milano
Brisson, Nadine
France, Versailles
Centre de Recherche Île-de-france - Versailles-grignon
France, Avignon
Centre de Recherche Inrae Provence-alpes-côte D’azur
Buis, Samuel
France, Avignon
Centre de Recherche Inrae Provence-alpes-côte D’azur
Cammarano, Davide
United Kingdom, Aberdeen
The James Hutton Institute
Challinor, A. J.
United Kingdom, Leeds
University of Leeds
Colombia, Cali
Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical
Confalonieri, Roberto
Italy, Milan
Università Degli Studi Di Milano
Conijn, Jacob G.
Netherlands, Wageningen
Wageningen University & Research
Corbeels, Marc
France, Paris
Cirad
Brazil, Brasilia
Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária - Embrapa
Deryng, Delphine
United Kingdom, Norwich
Tyndall Centre
De Sanctis, Giacomo
Belgium, Brussels
European Commission Joint Research Centre
Doltra, J.
Unknown Affiliation
Gaydon, Donald S.
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Gayler, Sebastian
Germany, Tubingen
Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen
Goldberg, Richard A.
United States, New York
Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Grant, Robert F.
Canada, Edmonton
University of Alberta
Grassini, Patricio
United States, Lincoln
University of Nebraska–lincoln
Hatfield, Jerry L.
United States, Ames
National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment
Heng, Lee Kheng
Austria, Vienna
International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna
Hoek, Steven B.
Netherlands, Wageningen
Wageningen University & Research
Hooker, Josh E.
United Kingdom, Reading
University of Reading
Izaurralde, Roberto César
United States, College Park
University of Maryland, College Park
France, Castanet-tolosan
Inrae Occitanie-toulouse Centre
Jones, James W.
United States, Gainesville
University of Florida
Kemanian, Armen R.
Uruguay, Montevideo
Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria – Inia Uruguay
Kersebaum, Kurt Christian
Germany, Muncheberg
Leibniz-zentrum Für Agrarlandschaftsforschung Zalf E. V.
Kim, Soonho
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Lizaso, Jon I.
Spain, Madrid
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Müller, Christoph
Germany, Potsdam
Potsdam Institut Fur Klimafolgenforschung
Naresh Kumar, Soora
India, New Delhi
Icar - Indian Agricultural Research Institute, new Delhi
Nendel, Claas
Germany, Muncheberg
Leibniz-zentrum Für Agrarlandschaftsforschung Zalf E. V.
O'Leary, Garry J.
Unknown Affiliation
Olesen, Jørgen Eivind
Denmark, Aarhus
Aarhus Universitet
Palosuo, Taru
Finland, Helsinki
Natural Resources Institute Finland Luke
Priesack, Eckart
Germany, Oberschleissheim
Helmholtz Center Munich German Research Center for Environmental Health
Ripoche, Dominique
France, Avignon
Centre de Recherche Inrae Provence-alpes-côte D’azur
Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.
United States, New York
Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Ruane, Alex C.
United States, New York
Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Ruget, Françoise
France, Avignon
Centre de Recherche Inrae Provence-alpes-côte D’azur
France, Avignon
Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation Des Agro-hydrosystèmes - Emmah
Semenov, Mikhail A.
United Kingdom, Harpenden
Rothamsted Research
Balwinder Singh, undefined
Unknown Affiliation
Singh, Upendra K.
Unknown Affiliation
Steduto, Pasquale
Italy, Rome
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Stöckle, Claudio O.
United States, Pullman
Washington State University Pullman
Stratonovitch, Pierre
United Kingdom, Harpenden
Rothamsted Research
Streck, Thilo
Germany, Stuttgart
Universität Hohenheim
Supit, Iwan
Netherlands, Wageningen
Wageningen University & Research
Tao, Fulu
Finland, Helsinki
Natural Resources Institute Finland Luke
Thorburn, Peter John
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Timlin, Dennis J.
United States, Washington, D.c.
Usda Agricultural Research Service
Travasso, María Isabel
Argentina, Buenos Aires
Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria Buenos Aires
Rötter, Reimund Paul
Finland, Helsinki
Natural Resources Institute Finland Luke
Waha, Katharina
Germany, Potsdam
Potsdam Institut Fur Klimafolgenforschung
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Wallach, Daniel
France, Castanet-tolosan
Inrae Occitanie-toulouse Centre
White, Jeffrey W.
United States, Maricopa
Arid-land Agricultural Research Center
Wilkens, Paul W.
Unknown Affiliation
Williams, Jimmy R.
United States, College Station
Texas A&m University
Wolf, Joost
Netherlands, Wageningen
Wageningen University & Research
Yin, Xinyou
Netherlands, Wageningen
Wageningen University & Research
Yoshida, Hiroe
Japan, Tsukuba
National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Naro
Zhang, Zhao
China, Beijing
Beijing Normal University
Zhu, Yan
China, Nanjing
Nanjing Agricultural University
Statistics
Citations: 28
Authors: 76
Affiliations: 55
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.013
ISSN:
01681923
Research Areas
Environmental
Study Approach
Quantitative