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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
Assessment of mortality prediction models in a Ghanaian burn population
Burns, Volume 39, No. 5, Year 2013
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Description
Purpose: Over 40 new or modified outcome prediction models have been developed for severe burns; with age, total burned surface area (TBSA) and inhalation area as major determinants of mortality. The objective of this study was to assess their applicability in a developing country. Procedures: Data were collected retrospectively of a consecutive series of 261 patients (2009-2011) admitted to a Burns Intensive Care. Five outcome prediction models based on admission criteria were evaluated: Bull grid, Abbreviated Burn Severity Index-ABSI, Ryan-model, Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury-BOBI and revised Baux. Discriminative power and goodness-of-fit were assessed by receiver operating characteristic analyses (area under the curve-AUC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. Findings: Median age was 10.5 years (IQR: 2.5-27 years), median TBSA 21% (IQR: 11-34%); 55.2% were male, 28 patients died (10.7%). Only 2 patients were intubated (0.8%). The AUC were between 77 and 86%. The ABSI model showed the best calibration (28.7 expected deaths). Ryan, BOBI and rBaux significantly underestimated mortality, whereas Bull showed an overestimation. Conclusion: This study on a young group of burn patients showed moderate to good discriminative power using all five prediction models. The expected number of deaths tended to be underestimated in the three most recent prediction models. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.
Authors & Co-Authors
Brusselaers, Nele
Belgium, Ghent
Universitair Ziekenhuis Gent
Sweden, Stockholm
Karolinska Institutet
Agbenorku, Pius T.
Ghana, Kumasi
Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology
Hoyte-Williams, P. E.
Ghana, Kumasi
Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology
Statistics
Citations: 40
Authors: 3
Affiliations: 3
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/j.burns.2012.10.023
ISSN:
03054179
e-ISSN:
18791409
Research Areas
Violence And Injury
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Participants Gender
Male