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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
environmental science
How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?
Global Change Biology, Volume 20, No. 7, Year 2014
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Description
Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha-1 per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 μmol mol-1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information. © 2014 John Wiley.
Authors & Co-Authors
Brisson, Nadine
France, Thiverval-grignon
Agronomie
Durand, Jean Louis
France, Lusignan
Centre Inrae Nouvelle-aquitaine Poitiers
Boote, Kenneth J.
United States, Gainesville
University of Florida
Lizaso, Jon I.
Spain, Madrid
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
Jones, James W.
United States, Gainesville
University of Florida
Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.
United States, New York
Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Ruane, Alex C.
United States, New York
Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Adam, Myriam
France, Paris
Cirad
Baron, Christian
France, Paris
Cirad
Basso, Bruno B.
United States, East Lansing
Michigan State University
Italy, Potenza
Università Degli Studi Della Basilicata
Biernath, Christian
Germany, Oberschleissheim
Helmholtz Center Munich German Research Center for Environmental Health
Boogaard, Hendrik L.
Netherlands, Wageningen
Wageningen University & Research
Corbeels, Marc
France, Paris
Cirad
Deryng, Delphine
United Kingdom, Norwich
Tyndall Centre
De Sanctis, Giacomo
France, Avignon
Centre de Recherche Inrae Provence-alpes-côte D’azur
Gayler, Sebastian
Germany, Tubingen
Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen
Grassini, Patricio
United States, Lincoln
University of Nebraska–lincoln
Hatfield, Jerry L.
United States, Washington, D.c.
United States Department of Agriculture
Hoek, Steven B.
Netherlands, Wageningen
Wageningen University & Research
Izaurralde, Roberto César
United States, Richland
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Kemanian, Armen R.
United States, University Park
Pennsylvania State University
Kersebaum, Kurt Christian
Germany, Muncheberg
Leibniz-zentrum Für Agrarlandschaftsforschung Zalf E. V.
Kim, Soo-hyung
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Makowski, David
France, Thiverval-grignon
Agronomie
Müller, Christoph
Germany, Potsdam
Potsdam Institut Fur Klimafolgenforschung
Nendel, Claas
Germany, Muncheberg
Leibniz-zentrum Für Agrarlandschaftsforschung Zalf E. V.
Priesack, Eckart
Germany, Oberschleissheim
Helmholtz Center Munich German Research Center for Environmental Health
Tao, Fulu
China, Beijing
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Timlin, Dennis J.
United States, Washington, D.c.
Usda Agricultural Research Service
Waha, Katharina
India, New Delhi
Icar - Indian Agricultural Research Institute, new Delhi
Statistics
Citations: 564
Authors: 30
Affiliations: 24
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1111/gcb.12520
ISSN:
13541013
Research Areas
Environmental
Study Locations
Tanzania