Mangrove expansion and population structure at a planted site, East London, South Africa

Avicennia marina (Forrsk.) Vierh. was planted in 1969 at Nahoon Estuary, East London, followed a few years later by the planting of Bruguiera gymnorrhiza (L.) Lam. and Rhizophora mucronata (L.) among the larger A. marina trees. This study tested the hypothesis that mangroves have expanded and replaced salt marsh over a 33-year period (1978–2011). It provides important information on mangroves growing at higher latitudes, where they were thought to not occur naturally due to lower annual average temperatures. It further provides insights on future scenarios of possible shifts in vegetation types due to climate change at one of the most southerly distribution sites worldwide. The expansion of mangroves was measured using past aerial photographs and Esri ArcGIS Desktop 10 software. In addition, field surveys were completed in 2011 to determine the population structure of the present mangrove forest and relate this to environmental conditions. The study showed that mangrove area cover increased linearly at a rate of 0.06 ha y−1, while the salt marsh area cover also increased (0.09 ha y−1) but was found to be variable over time. The mangrove area is still relatively small (<2 ha) and expanded mostly over a bare sandflat area. Avicennia marina was the dominant species and had high recruitment (seedling density was 33 822 ± 16 364 ha−1). Only a few Bruguiera gymnorrhiza and Rhizophora mucronata individuals were found (<10 adult trees), although observations indicate that some young plants are becoming established away from the parent plants. The site provides opportunities for studies on mangrove/salt marsh interactions in response to a changing climate. Mangroves should not be planted in non-native areas as they may become invasive outside their natural range. However, future increases in temperature will certainly lead to a southerly expansion of mangoves in South African estuaries.