Risk mapping and early warning systems for the control of meningitis in Africa

Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis in Africa have plagued the continent for over a century. These epidemics have a strong association with the environment and efforts are being made to develop models to predict both their location and their incidence. This review describes the predictive models based on climate/environmental information currently available, describes work in progress, and presents evidence that the distribution of the epidemics is changing in a pattern that is compatible with changes in the environment. Discussion of priorities for research in the context of the new conjugate vaccines in Africa is also provided. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.