Medication possession ratio: Predicting and decreasing loss to follow-up in antiretroviral treatment programs in Côte d'Ivoire

Background: In antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs, decreasing loss to follow up (LTFU) is a major priority. Methods We conducted a prospective study in Abidjan. Adults who started ART between June 2005 and May 2008 and were still in care 6 months later had monthly visits, biannual CD4 counts, computerized data collection and home visits (routine follow-up). A subset of patients also had biannual plasma HIV-1 RNA measurements, with a physician and a research assistant hired to pay particular attention to their visits (enhanced follow-up). We analyzed the association between 18-month outcomes and pre-ART characteristics, medication possession ratio (MPR) and type of follow-up. Patients were LTFU if their last visit was before month-18 and they had not returned to care by month-24. Results: 2,074 patients started ART, of whom 1,636 (79%) were still in care at month-6. The routine (n = 999) and enhanced (n = 637) groups had similar baseline characteristics. From month-6 to month-18, they had similar death rates (routine 3.6%, enhanced 3.9%, P = 0.74), but the enhanced group had significantly less LTFU (routine 11.3%, enhanced 5.8%, P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, the risk of LTFU from month-6 to month-18 was 46% lower with enhanced follow-up, 56% higher in patients living outside the centre area, and 4.0 fold higher in patients with a low MPR (<80%) between ART initiation and month-6. Conclusions: In patients still in care at 6 months, a low MPR in the first 6 months was strongly associated with further LTFU. Simple follow-up enhancement halved the LTFU rate in the following year. Copyright © 2011 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.