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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
The Lancet Rheumatology, Volume 5, No. 10, Year 2023
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Description
Background: Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods: Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8–20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8–241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7–15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40–2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41–0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500–44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5–29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000–3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6–45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3–81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6–10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8–39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050. Interpretation: Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Authors & Co-Authors
Black, Rachel J.
Australia, Adelaide
Royal Adelaide Hospital
Cross, Marita J.
Australia, Sydney
The University of Sydney
Australia, Sydney
Institute for Musculoskeletal Health
Haile, Lydia M.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Culbreth, Garland T.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Steinmetz, Jaimie D.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Hagins, Hailey
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Kopec, Jacek A.
Canada, Vancouver
The University of British Columbia
Canada, Vancouver
Arthritis Research Canada
Brooks, Peters M.
Australia, Melbourne
University of Melbourne
Woolf, Anthony D.
Australia, Sydney
Institute for Musculoskeletal Health
United Kingdom, Truro
Royal Cornwall Hospital
Ong, Kanyin Liane
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Kopansky-Giles, Deborah R.
Canada, Toronto
University of Toronto
Canada, Toronto
Canadian Memorial Chiropractic College
Betteridge, Neil John
Unknown Affiliation
Aali, Amirali
Iran, Mashhad
Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
Abbasifard, Mitra
Iran, Rafsanjan
Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences
Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Abedi, Aidin
United States, Los Angeles
University of Southern California
Abidi, Hassan
Iran, Yasuj
Yasuj University of Medical Sciences
Aboagye, Richard Gyan
Ghana, Ho
University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ghana
Abolhassani, Hassan
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Sweden, Stockholm
Karolinska Universitetssjukhuset
Abu-Gharbieh, Eman F.
United Arab Emirates, Sharjah
University of Sharjah
Abu-Zaid, Ahmed
Saudi Arabia, Riyadh
Alfaisal University
United States, Memphis
University of Tennessee Health Science Center
Adamu, Kidist
Ethiopia, Dessie
Wollo University
Addo, Isaac Yeboah
Australia, Sydney
Unsw Sydney
Australia, Sydney
Cancer Institute Nsw
Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun
Nigeria, Ibadan
Slum and Rural Health Initiative Research Academy
Nigeria, Ibadan
University of Ibadan
Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
Indonesia, Bandung
Universitas Padjadjaran
Afzal, Muhammad Sohail
Pakistan, Lahore
University of Management and Technology Lahore
Ahmed, Ayman
Sudan, Khartoum
Khartoum University
Switzerland, Allschwil
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Swiss Tph
Alemayehu, Astawus
Ethiopia, Harar
Harar Health Science College
Ethiopia, Harar
Rift Valley University
Alvand, Saba
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J.
Colombia, Barranquilla
Universidad de la Costa
Colombia, Bogota
Instituto Nacional de Salud
Amu, Hubert
Ghana, Ho
University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ghana
Antony, Benny Samuel Eathakkattu
Australia, Hobart
University of Tasmania
Arabloo, Jalal
Iran, Tehran
Iran University of Medical Sciences
Aravkin, Aleksandr Y.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Arulappan, Judie
Oman, Muscat
Sultan Qaboos University
Ashraf, Tahira
Pakistan, Lahore
University of Lahore
Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin
Iran, Zanjan
Zanjan University of Medical Sciences Zums
Azadnajafabad, Sina
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Badawi, Alaa F.
Canada, Toronto
University of Toronto
Canada, Ottawa
Public Health Agency of Canada
Baghcheghi, Nayereh
Iran, Saveh
Saveh University of Medical Sciences
Baig, Atif Amin
Pakistan, Lahore
University of Lahore
Banach, Maciej P.
Poland, Lodz
Medical University of Lodz
Poland, Lodz
Instytut Centrum Zdrowia Matki Polki
Banik, Palash Chandra
Bangladesh, Dhaka
Bangladesh University of Health Sciences
Barrow, Amadou
Gambia, Serrekunda
University of the Gambia
Gambia, Kotu
Ministry of Health
Bearne, Lindsay
United Kingdom, London
University of London
United Kingdom, Royston
National Institute for Health and Care Research
Bekele, Alehegn
Ethiopia, Arba Minch
Arba Minch University
Benseñor, Isabela Judith Martins
Brazil, Sao Paulo
Universidade de São Paulo
Berhie, Alemshet Yirga
Ethiopia, Bahir Dar
Bahir Dar University
Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth
United States, Fayetteville
University of Arkansas
Bhardwaj, Pankaj
India, Jodhpur
All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur
Bhat, Ajay Nagesh
India, Manipal
Manipal Academy of Higher Education
Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi Sitandahi
Bahrain, Muharraq
Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland Medical University of Bahrain
Bitaraf, Saeid
Iran, Ahvaz
Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences
Bodicha, Belay Boda Abule
Ethiopia, Arba Minch
Arba Minch University
Botelho, João Silva
Portugal, Caparica
Egas Moniz School of Health and Science
Briggs, Andrew M.
Australia, Perth
Curtin University
Buchbinder, Rachelle
Australia, Clayton
Monash University
Australia, Clayton
Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences
Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A.
Colombia, Bogota
Instituto Nacional de Salud
Colombia, Bogota
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Charalampous, Periklis
Netherlands, Rotterdam
Erasmus Mc
Chattu, Vijay Kumar
Canada, Toronto
University of Toronto
India, Chennai
Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences
Dadras, Omid
Norway, Bergen
Western Norway University of Applied Sciences
Norway, Bergen
Universitetet I Bergen
Dai, Xiaochen
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
de Luca, Katie E.
Australia, Brisbane
Cquniversity Brisbane
Dessalegn, Fikadu Nugusu
Ethiopia, Robe
Madda Walabu University
Dessie, Gashaw
Ethiopia, Gondar
University of Gondar
Dhimal, Megnath
Nepal, Kathmandu
Nepal Health Research Council
Digesa, Lankamo Ena
Ethiopia, Arba Minch
Arba Minch University
Diress, Mengistie
Ethiopia, Gondar
University of Gondar
Doku, Paul
Ghana, Cape Coast
University of Cape Coast Ghana
Edinur, Hisham Atan
Malaysia, Minden
Universiti Sains Malaysia
Ekholuenetale, Michael
Nigeria, Ibadan
University of Ibadan
Elhadi, Muhammed K.
Libya, Tripoli
University of Tripoli
El-Sherbiny, Yasser M.
United Kingdom, Nottingham
Nottingham Trent University
Egypt, Mansoura
Mansoura University
Faghani, Shahriar
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Filip, Irina
United States, Oakland
Kaiser Permanente
United States, Mesa
Arizona School of Health Sciences
Fischer, Florian
Germany, Berlin
Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin
Fukumoto, Takeshi
Japan, Kobe
Kobe University
Ganesan, Balasankar
Unknown Affiliation
Gebremichael, Mathewos Alemu
Ethiopia, Arba Minch
Arba Minch University
Gerema, Urge
Ethiopia, Jimma
Jimma University
Getachew, Motuma Erena
Ethiopia, Jimma
Jimma University
Ethiopia, Nekemte
Wollega University
Ghashghaee, Ahmad
Iran, Qazvin
Qazvin University of Medical Sciences
Gill, Tiffany K.
Australia, Adelaide
The University of Adelaide
Gupta, Bhawna
Australia, Adelaide
Torrens University Australia
Gupta, Veer Bala
Australia, Geelong
Deakin University
Gupta, Vivek Kumar
Australia, Sydney
Macquarie University
Halwani, Rabih
United Arab Emirates, Sharjah
University of Sharjah
Haque, Shafiul
Saudi Arabia, Jazan
Jazan University
Harlianto, Netanja I.
Netherlands, Utrecht
Universiteit Utrecht
Netherlands, Utrecht
University Medical Center Utrecht
Hasaballah, Ahmed I.
Egypt, Cairo
Al-azhar University
Hassen, Mohammed Bheser
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Ethiopia, Addis Ababa
Ethiopian Public Health Institute
Hay, Simon I.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Hayat, Khezar
Pakistan, Lahore
University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore
China, Xi'an
Xi'an Jiaotong University
Heidari, Golnaz
Unknown Affiliation
Hill, Catherine Louise
Australia, Woodville South
The Queen Elizabeth Hospital, North Western Adelaide Health Service
Australia, Adelaide
The University of Adelaide
Hiraike, Yuta
Japan, Tokyo
The University of Tokyo
Horita, Nobuyuki
Japan, Yokohama
Yokohama City University
United States, Bethesda
National Institutes of Health Nih
Hussain, Salman
Czech Republic, Brno
Masaryk University
Iavicoli, Ivo
Italy, Naples
Università Degli Studi Di Napoli Federico Ii
Ilic, Irena M.
Serbia, Belgrade
University of Belgrade
Islam, Sheikh Mohammad Shariful
Australia, Sydney
The University of Sydney
Australia, Geelong
Deakin University
Iwagami, Masao
Japan, Tsukuba
University of Tsukuba
United Kingdom, London
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Jakovljevic, Mihajlo
Russian Federation, Saint Petersburg
Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University
Japan, Tokyo
Hosei University
Joseph, Nitin
India, Manipal
Manipal Academy of Higher Education
Kandel, Himal
Australia, Sydney
The University of Sydney
Australia, Caringbah
South Eastern Sydney Local Health District
Kanko, Tesfaye K.
Ethiopia, Arba Minch
Arba Minch University
Karaye, Ibraheem M.
United States, Hempstead
Hofstra University
Khan, Moien A.B.
United Arab Emirates, Al Ain
United Arab Emirates University
Khanali, Javad
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Iran, Tehran
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
Khatatbeh, Moawiah M.
Jordan, Irbid
Yarmouk University
Khubchandani, Jagdish
United States, Las Cruces
New Mexico State University
Kim, Yun-jin
Malaysia, Sepang
Xiamen University Malaysia
Kisa, Adnan
Norway, Oslo
Kristiania University College
United States, New Orleans
Tulane University
Kolahi, Ali Asghar
Iran, Tehran
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
Kompani, Farzad
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Koohestani, Hamid Reza
Iran, Saveh
Saveh University of Medical Sciences
Krishan, K.
India, Chandigarh
Panjab University
Kuddus, M. Abdul
Saudi Arabia, Hail
University of Ha'il
Larijani, Bagher A.
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Lim, Stephen S.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Lo, Justin
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Majeed, Azeem
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
Malik, Ahmad Azam
Pakistan, Lahore
University of Lahore
Saudi Arabia, Jeddah
King Abdulaziz University
Mansournia, Mohammad Ali
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Mathews, Elezebeth
India, Kasaragod
Central University of Kerala
Mentis, Alexios Fotios A.
Unknown Affiliation
Meštrović, Tomislav
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Croatia, Koprivnica
University North
Mirghaderi, Peyman
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Mirrakhimov, Erkin
Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek
Kyrgyz State Medical Academy
Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek
National Center of Cardiology and Internal Medicine
Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Ethiopia, Addis Ababa
Ethiopian Public Health Institute
Mohammed, Shafiu Abdullah
Nigeria, Zaria
Ahmadu Bello University
Germany, Berlin
Technische Universität Berlin
Mokdad, Ali H.I.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Al Montasir, Ahmed
Bangladesh, Bogura
Tmss Medical College
Mulu, Getaneh Baye
Ethiopia, Debre Berhan
Debre Berhan University
Murillo-Zamora, Efrén
Mexico, Mexico
Instituto Mexicano Del Seguro Social
Mexico, Colima
Universidad de Colima
Murray, Christopher J.L.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Mustafa, Ghulam
Saudi Arabia, Shaqra
Shaqra University
Naghavi, Mohsen
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Naqvi, Atta Abbas
United Kingdom, Reading
University of Reading
Natto, Zuhair Saleh
Saudi Arabia, Jeddah
King Abdulaziz University
United States, Cambridge
Harvard University
Neupane, Subas
Finland, Tampere
Tampere University
Nguyen, Cuong Tat
Viet Nam, Da Nang
Duy Tan University
Oh, In-hwan
South Korea, Seoul
Kyung Hee University
Okonji, Osaretin Christabel
South Africa, Bellville
University of the Western Cape
Olufadewa, Isaac Iyinoluwa
Nigeria, Ibadan
Slum and Rural Health Initiative Research Academy
Nigeria, Ibadan
University of Ibadan
Owolabi, Mayowa O.
Nigeria, Ibadan
University of Ibadan
Nigeria, Ibadan
University College Hospital, Ibadan
Pacheco-Barrios, Kevin
United States, Cambridge
Harvard University
Peru, Lima
Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola
Patel, Jay
United Kingdom, Edinburgh
The University of Edinburgh
United Kingdom, Leeds
University of Leeds
Pawar, Shrikant D.
United States, New Haven
Yale University
Qattea, Ibrahim
United States, Cleveland
Case Western Reserve University
Radfar, Amir
United States, Orlando
University of Central Florida
Rafiei, Alireza
Iran, Sari
Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences
Rashidi, Mohammad Mahdi
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Iran, Tehran
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
Rawaf, Salman
United Kingdom, London
Imperial College London
United Kingdom, London
Public Health England
Renzaho, Andre M.N.
Australia, Penrith
Western Sydney University
Rezaei, Nazila
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Rezaei, Nima
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Riad, Abanoub
Czech Republic, Brno
Masaryk University
Saad, Aly Mohamed Abd Alrahman
Egypt, Zagazig
Zagazig University
Saddik, Basema
United Arab Emirates, Sharjah
University of Sharjah
Sahebkar, Amirhossein
Iran, Mashhad
Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
Sahoo, Harihar
India, Mumbai
International Institute for Population Sciences
Farrokhi, Amir Salek
Iran, Tehran
Pasteur Institute of Iran
Shahabi, Saeed
Iran, Shiraz
Shiraz University of Medical Sciences
Shaikh, Masood Ali A.
Unknown Affiliation
Shigematsu, Mika
Japan, Tokyo
National Institute of Infectious Diseases
Shobeiri, Parnian
Iran, Tehran
Tehran University of Medical Sciences
Iran, Tehran
Non-communicable Diseases Research Center
Sibhat, Migbar Mekonnen
Ethiopia, Addis Ababa
Dilla University
Singh, Ambrish
Australia, Hobart
University of Tasmania
Singh, Jasvinder A.
United States, Birmingham
The University of Alabama at Birmingham
United States, Birmingham
Birmingham va Medical Center
Singh, Paramdeep Tony
India, New Delhi
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare
Siraj, Md Shahjahan
Bangladesh, Dhaka
International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh
Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna
Russian Federation, Moscow
Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University Rnrmu
Slater, Helen
Australia, Perth
Curtin University
Smith, Amanda E.
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Solomon, Yonatan
Ethiopia, Dire Dawa
Dire Dawa University
Tabish, Mohammad
Saudi Arabia, Shaqra
Shaqra University
Tan, Ker Kan
Singapore, Singapore City
National University of Singapore
Tehrani-Banihashemi, Seyed Arash
Iran, Tehran
Iran University of Medical Sciences
Tharwat, Samar
Egypt, Mansoura
Mansoura University
Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto
India, Chennai
Saveetha Institute of Medical and Technical Sciences
India, Kattankulathur
Srm Institute of Science and Technology
Tusa, Biruk Shalmeno
Ethiopia, Dire Dawa
Haramaya University
Valadan Tahbaz, Sahel
Iran, Tehran
Islamic Azad University
Valdez, Pascual Rubén
Argentina, Buenos Aires
Argentine Society of Medicine
Vollset, Stein Emil
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
Yehualashet, Sisay Shewasinad
Ethiopia, Debre Berhan
Debre Berhan University
Yonemoto, Naohiro
Japan, Kodaira
National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry
Japan, Tokyo
Juntendo University
Yunusa, Ismaeel
United States, Columbia
University of South Carolina
Zangiabadian, Moein
Iran, Tehran
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
Zare, Iman
Iran, Shiraz
Sina Medical Biochemistry Technologies
Zarrintan, Armin
Iran, Tabriz
Tabriz University of Medical Sciences
Zoladl, Mohammad
Iran, Yasuj
Yasuj University of Medical Sciences
Vos, Theo
United States, Seattle
University of Washington
March, L. M.
Australia, Sydney
The University of Sydney
Australia, Sydney
Royal North Shore Hospital
Statistics
Citations: 15
Authors: 194
Affiliations: 208
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/S2665-9913(23)00211-4
ISSN:
26659913
Research Areas
Disability
Health System And Policy
Maternal And Child Health
Violence And Injury
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Cohort Study
Study Approach
Systematic review
Participants Gender
Male
Female