Stochastic modeling of urban growth using the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in the tropical humid region of Ethiopia: Mettu

Urban expansion possesses significant negative impacts on the environment, particularly in forest areas worldwide. This study aimed to analyze urban expansion by using stochastic modeling with the CA-Markov chain and multi-scenario prospects in Mettu area, Ethiopia. The Landsat images of 1986, 2000, and 2021 were used. The results reveal built-up areas gained 27.2%, of which cropland and forest accounted for 11.4 and 6.4%, respectively, within the 1986–2021 period. Despite the potential decline in urban growth rates, the model revealed that the spatial extent will likely expand twofold before the 2040s. In the rapid development (RD) scenario, urban development due to population increase will occur, which is also prevalent in the proposed suitable urban expansion (PSUE) scenario, but the ecological and economic protection (EEP) scenario reveals very limited. The findings of this study will have far-reaching impacts on ecological and economic livelihoods unless green economy principles are effectively implemented.