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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China
Nature Food, Volume 1, No. 4, Year 2020
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Description
African swine fever is a deadly porcine disease that has spread into East Asia where it is having a detrimental effect on pork production. However, the implications of African swine fever on the global pork market are poorly explored. Two linked global economic models are used to explore the consequences of different scales of the epidemic on pork prices and on the prices of other food types and animal feeds. The models project global pork prices increasing by 17–85% and unmet demand driving price increases of other meats. This price rise reduces the quantity of pork demanded but also spurs production in other parts of the world, and imports make up half the Chinese losses. Demand for, and prices of, food types such as beef and poultry rise, while prices for maize and soybean used in feed decline. There is a slight decline in average per capita calorie availability in China, indicating the importance of assuring the dietary needs of low-income populations. Outside China, projections for calorie availability are mixed, reflecting the direct and indirect effects of the African swine fever epidemic on food and feed markets. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
Authors & Co-Authors
Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Bogard, Jessica Rose
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Herrero, Mario
Australia, Canberra
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Robinson, Sherman
United States, Washington, D.c.
International Food Policy Research Institute
Sulser, Timothy B.
United States, Washington, D.c.
International Food Policy Research Institute
Wiebe, Keith D.
United States, Washington, D.c.
International Food Policy Research Institute
Willenbockel, Dirk
United Kingdom, Brighton
University of Sussex
Godfray, Charles H.
United Kingdom, Oxford
University of Oxford
Statistics
Citations: 115
Authors: 8
Affiliations: 4
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1038/s43016-020-0057-2
ISSN:
26621355
Research Areas
Food Security