Enabling conservation theories of change

Global theories of change (ToCs) can provide broad, overarching guidance for conservation and sustainable use of Earth’s ecosystems. However, broad guidance alone cannot inform how conservation actions will lead to desired socioecological outcomes. Here we develop a framework for translating a global-scale ToC into focused, ecosystem-specific ToCs that consider feasibility of actions, as determined by national socioeconomic and political contexts (that is, enabling conditions). We used coastal wetlands as a case study for developing the framework and identified six distinct multinational profiles of enabling conditions (‘enabling profiles’) for their conservation. For countries belonging to profiles with high internal capacity to enable conservation, we described plausible ToCs that involved strengthening policy and regulation. Alternatively, for profiles with low internal enabling capacity, plausible ToCs typically required formalizing community-led conservation. Our ‘enabling profile’ framework can be applied to other ecosystems to help operationalize the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and meet sustainable development goals. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.