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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
agricultural and biological sciences
Large-scale determinants of intestinal schistosomiasis and intermediate host snail distribution across Africa: Does climate matter?
Acta Tropica, Volume 128, No. 2, Year 2013
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Description
The geographical ranges of most species, including many infectious disease agents and their vectors and intermediate hosts, are assumed to be constrained by climatic tolerances, mainly temperature. It has been suggested that global warming will cause an expansion of the areas potentially suitable for infectious disease transmission. However, the transmission of infectious diseases is governed by a myriad of ecological, economic, evolutionary and social factors. Hence, a deeper understanding of the total disease system (pathogens, vectors and hosts) and its drivers is important for predicting responses to climate change. Here, we combine a growing degree day model for Schistosoma mansoni with species distribution models for the intermediate host snail (Biomphalaria spp.) to investigate large-scale environmental determinants of the distribution of the African S. mansoni- Biomphalaria system and potential impacts of climatic changes. Snail species distribution models included several combinations of climatic and habitat-related predictors; the latter divided into "natural" and "human-impacted" habitat variables to measure anthropogenic influence. The predictive performance of the combined snail-parasite model was evaluated against a comprehensive compilation of historical S. mansoni parasitological survey records, and then examined for two climate change scenarios of increasing severity for 2080. Future projections indicate that while the potential S. mansoni transmission area expands, the snail ranges are more likely to contract and/or move into cooler areas in the south and east. Importantly, we also note that even though climate per se matters, the impact of humans on habitat play a crucial role in determining the distribution of the intermediate host snails in Africa. Thus, a future contraction in the geographical range size of the intermediate host snails caused by climatic changes does not necessarily translate into a decrease or zero-sum change in human schistosomiasis prevalence. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.
Authors & Co-Authors
Stensgaard, Anna Sofie
Denmark, Copenhagen
Københavns Universitet
Utzinger, Jürg
Switzerland, Allschwil
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Swiss Tph
Switzerland, Basel
Universitat Basel
Vounatsou, P.
Switzerland, Allschwil
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Swiss Tph
Switzerland, Basel
Universitat Basel
Hürlimann, Eveline
Switzerland, Allschwil
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Swiss Tph
Switzerland, Basel
Universitat Basel
Schur, Nadine
Switzerland, Allschwil
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Swiss Tph
Switzerland, Basel
Universitat Basel
Saarnak, Christopher F.L.
Denmark, Copenhagen
Københavns Universitet
Simoonga, Christopher
Zambia, Lusaka
Zambian Ministry of Health
Mubita, Patricia
Zambia, Lusaka
University of Zambia
Kabatereine, Narcis B.
Uganda, Kampala
Uganda Ministry of Health
Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis Albert
Cameroon, Yaounde
Ministry of Public Health Cameroon
Cameroon, Yaounde
Université de Yaoundé I
Cameroon, Yaounde
Centre for Schistosomiasis and Parasitology
Rahbek, Carsten
Denmark, Copenhagen
Københavns Universitet
Kristensen, Thomas K.
Denmark, Copenhagen
Københavns Universitet
Statistics
Citations: 138
Authors: 12
Affiliations: 9
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/j.actatropica.2011.11.010
ISSN:
0001706X
e-ISSN:
18736254
Research Areas
Environmental
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Study Approach
Quantitative