Agricultural development promises more growth and less poverty in Africa: Modelling the potential impact of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme in six countries

Motivation: Countries of Africa have, through the Maputo and Malabo declarations and the companion Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) committed to increased public investment in agriculture. If implemented, this should contribute substantially to realizing several development goals, including reduction of poverty and hunger and making rural populations more resilient to climate change. Purpose: How much would implementation of National Agriculture Investment Plans (NAIPs) formulated within CAADP help achieve the aims of the Sustainable Development Goals, Agenda 2063, and the Malabo Declaration—namely, to boost agricultural growth, eradicate hunger, and reduce poverty and inequality?. Methods and approach: We use data from Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, and Rwanda compiled in a Social Accounting Matrix. We run Computable General Equilibrium models with microeconomic models for each country to simulate the potential effect of implementation of the NAIPs. Three different methods to finance increased spending on agriculture are simulated: one that reallocates public expenditure with no overall increase in spending; a second that finances extra spending by more taxes; and one that relies on external funding to increase total spending. Findings: Results show that agriculture-led investment would significantly increase agricultural growth, raise farm productivity, reduce dependency on food imports, improve incomes of food producers, and cut poverty. In most countries, increased investment in agriculture does more to boost growth, create jobs, and cut poverty than investments in industry or services. Raising overall public spending to allow more agricultural investment is far more effective than shifting spending within a fixed budget. Policy implications: For the six countries modelled, an agriculture-led investment strategy appears the best way to eradicate hunger and reduce poverty and inequality while building resilience of rural households.