Prediction of hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma after direct-acting antiviral therapy in patients with hepatitis C-related liver cirrhosis: a cohort study

Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the rate of hepatic decompensation and de novo HCC and identify their independent factors in HCV genotype 4-infected patients with compensated liver cirrhosis following successful direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 1789 patients with HCV genotype 4-related compensated liver cirrhosis who achieved viral eradication after DAAs. Baseline and follow-up clinical, laboratory, albumin-bilirubin score (ALBI), and abdominal ultrasound were recorded to detect hepatic decompensation and de novo HCC. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the variables associated with decompensation and HCC. Results: During the 24-month period of follow-up, 184 (10.28%) patients developed hepatic decompensation. Ascites was the commonest presentation. Baseline serum albumin, bilirubin, and platelet count were the independent factors associated with hepatic decompensation (P-values 0.022, 0.03, and < 0.001, respectively). A formula was developed for the prediction of decompensation using these 3 factors (AUC: 0.641 at cutoff 0.1098969 with a sensitivity of 59.9% and specificity of 61.7%). Pre-treatment ALBI score could predict decompensation at cutoff value − 2.5184, AUC 0.609, sensitivity 58.3%, and specificity 59.7%. Post-treatment ALBI score could predict hepatic decompensation after DAA therapy at cutoff value − 2.9521, AUC 0.597, sensitivity 48.1%, and specificity 75.5%. Sixteen (0.9%) patients developed de novo HCC. Age (odds ratio: 1.061, 95%, confidence interval: 1–1.126) and male gender (OR 3.450, 95% CI 1.105–10.769) were the independent factors associated with the development of de novo HCC but not the ALBI score. Conclusion: Baseline demographic and laboratory data could predict hepatic decompensation and HCC in patients with compensated liver cirrhosis after successful DAA therapy.