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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
environmental science
Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: A GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling
Journal of Environmental Management, Volume 92, No. 3, Year 2011
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Description
We present a GIS method to interpret qualitatively expressed socio-economic scenarios in quantitative map-based terms. (i) We built scenarios using local stakeholders and experts to define how major land cover classes may change under different sets of drivers; (ii) we formalised these as spatially explicit rules, for example agriculture can only occur on certain soil types; (iii) we created a future land cover map which can then be used to model ecosystem services. We illustrate this for carbon storage in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania using two scenarios: the first based on sustainable development, the second based on 'business as usual' with continued forest-woodland degradation and poor protection of existing forest reserves. Between 2000 and 2025 4% of carbon stocks were lost under the first scenario compared to a loss of 41% of carbon stocks under the second scenario. Quantifying the impacts of differing future scenarios using the method we document here will be important if payments for ecosystem services are to be used to change policy in order to maintain critical ecosystem services. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
Authors & Co-Authors
Swetnam, Ruth D.
United Kingdom, Cambridge
University of Cambridge
Fisher, Brendan P.
United Kingdom, Norwich
University of East Anglia
United States, Princeton
Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Mbilinyi, Boniface P.
Tanzania, Morogoro
Sokoine University of Agriculture
Munishi, Pantaleo K.T.
Tanzania, Morogoro
Sokoine University of Agriculture
Willcock, Simon P.
United Kingdom, Leeds
University of Leeds
Ricketts, Taylor H.
United States, Washington, D.c.
World Wildlife Fund
Mwakalila, Shadrack S.
Tanzania, Dar es Salaam
University of Dar es Salaam
Balmford, Andrew P.
United Kingdom, Cambridge
University of Cambridge
Burgess, Neil David
United Kingdom, Cambridge
University of Cambridge
United States, Washington, D.c.
World Wildlife Fund
Marshall, Andrew Robert
United Kingdom, York
University of York
United Kingdom, Malton
Flamingo Land Ltd.
Lewis, Simon L.
United Kingdom, Leeds
University of Leeds
Statistics
Citations: 292
Authors: 11
Affiliations: 9
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.09.007
ISSN:
03014797
Research Areas
Environmental
Health System And Policy
Study Approach
Quantitative
Study Locations
Tanzania