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Publication Details
AFRICAN RESEARCH NEXUS
SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON AFRICAN RESEARCH
medicine
Expected increase in hepatitis C-related mortality in Egypt due to pre-2000 infections
Journal of Hepatology, Volume 44, No. 3, Year 2006
Notification
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Description
Background/Aims: Egypt has the highest prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) in the world, apparently due to mass parenteral antischistosomal therapy. Estimating the future burden of HCV in Egypt is important to support health policies to combat the epidemic. Methods: A previous back calculation model was adapted to the situation in Egypt. It combines a model of the natural history of HCV infections with available epidemiological data to back calculate the past HCV incidence from observed 1980-1999 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality. In turn, the HCV-related mortality burden is projected in the future due to pre-2000 infections. Results: Compared with the observed number of HCC deaths in 1999, the model predicts a 3.5-fold increase in this mortality in the next 20 years. Globally, the model predicts a 2.4-fold increase in the HCV-related mortality. These predictions do not take into account the new infections that may occur after 2000, which would still increase the estimated future mortality burden. Conclusions: HCV-related mortality is expected at least to double in the next 20 years. The use of antiviral therapies can lower these predictions. Efficient prevention policies are needed to avoid these predictions being exceeded. © 2005 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Authors & Co-Authors
Deuffic-Burban, Sylvie
France, Paris
Cnrs Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
France, Paris
Inserm
Mohamed, Mostafa K.
Egypt, Cairo
Ain Shams University
Larouzé, Bernard
France, Paris
Inserm
Carrat, Fabrice
France, Paris
Inserm
Valleron, A. J.
France, Paris
Inserm
Statistics
Citations: 83
Authors: 5
Affiliations: 3
Identifiers
Doi:
10.1016/j.jhep.2005.08.008
ISSN:
01688278
Research Areas
Cancer
Infectious Diseases
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Cohort Study
Study Locations
Egypt